Silver’s fall from 10.8 extends further to as low as 9.53 before recovering mildly. 4 hours MACD’s turn negative argues that rebound from 8.4 has completed at 10.8 already. Also, failure to take out 11.195 resistance didn’t confirm that a short term bottom is formed. At this point, intraday bias is mildly on the downside as long as 10.535 minor resistance holds. Break of 9.2 will confirm that rebound has completed and will bring retest of 8.4 low. On the upside, above 10.535 will turn intraday outlook neutral again. Further break of 11.95 will confirm a short term bottom is in place with bullish convergence condition in daily MACD and RSI and will bring strong rally towards 13.88 resistance.

In the bigger picture, as discussed before, we have been expecting the whole decline from 21.44 to complete after a brief break of 8.48 key medium term support. The reason behind is that firstly, target zone of the fall from 21.44 is 5.5 to 8.48 region. Secondly, 76.4% retracement of 4.315 to 21.44 at 8.356 is in proximity. Thirdly, so is 61.8% projection of 19.55 to 10.31 from 13.88 at 8.17. Fourthly, if we use the distance the first wave traveled as equality projection from 13.88, that would yield 8.44.

The development so far is consistent with this view. Fall from 13.88 looks like a fall diagonal triangle (or a falling wedge). and strong rebound was seen after hitting 8.4. However, break of 11.195 is still needed to be the first signal that silver has a medium term reversal. In such case, strong rebound should be seen to 13.88 and above. Nevertheless, upside should be limited by 16.00 support turned resistance and bring down trend resumption. On the downside, though, sustained break of 8.17/48 support zone will target next key medium term level of 5.5 next.

Comex Silver Continuous Contract 4 Hours Chart

Comex Silver Continuous Contract Daily Chart

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