November 19 2008

USD/CHF Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1983; (P) 1.2014; (R1) 1.2062

USD/CHF’s rally is still in progress and climbs further to 1.2061 today so far. Intraday bias remains on the upside as long as 1.1965minor support holds. Current rise from 1.1208 is still expected to extend to next target of 100% projection of 1.0693 to 1.1746 from 1.1208 at 1.2261. On the downside, below 1.1965 will indicate that an intraday top is in place and bring retreat to 4 hours 55 EMA (now at 1.1875). Also, considering bearish divergence condition in 4 hours MACD, this will be an early alert that a short term top is formed and focus will then turn to 1.1549 support.

In the bigger picture, medium term rise from 0.9634 is still in progress and has taken out 1.1878 (61.8% retracement of 1.3283 to 0.9634 at 1.1889). Sustained trading above there now encourages further medium term rally to test 1.3283 high. On the downside, break of 1.1208 support is needed to indicate that such medium term rally has completed. Otherwise, medium term outlook will remain bullish even in case of deep pull back.

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