November 25 2008

Central Banks & Interest Rate Forecasts

Central Banks & Interest Rate Forecasts

In light of dovish comments by central banks and the surprising 100bp rate cut by SNB Thursday, forecasts on cash rates were revised down more aggressively. For the week ended Nov 21, economists priced in a greater interest rates cut in US, Europe, United Kingdom, Australia and New Zealand in central bank meetings in December.

Fed: Deutsche Bank caught up with Danske Bank, Goldman and Morgan Stanley to expect a 50bp cut in December. ‘The recent further weakening of economic activity confirm the view that the economy is dropping into a severe recession. Under these circumstances, and given the recent sharp drop in inflation, we expect the Fed to bring all available ammunition to bear as quickly as possible. This points to a rate cut to unprecedented levels at the December meeting, and indications that they could remain at a very accommodative level for some time to come,’ the bank commented.

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October 19 2008

The Week Ahead

Bank of Canada and Reserve Bank of New Zealand are both expected to cut interest rates again this week. BoC is expected to cut 50bps to 2.0% while RBNZ is expected to cut 1% to 6.5%. BoE minutes will be featured and should show unanimous vote for the coordinated global 50bps cut earlier this month. Bernanke’s will testify at House Budget Committee on Economy on Monday.

The economic calendar in US is pretty light next week. Economic data include leading indicators, house price index and existing home sales. From Eurozone, main focus is on manufacturing and services PMI. UK Q3 GDP and Sep retail sales will be released. Australian PPI and CPI, New Zealand CPI and Canadian retail sales, CPI will also be released.

Note that firstly, inflation are now a lesser threat that recession in the world economy, in particular after commodity prices tumbled in the past few months. Hence, the CPI data will have much less impact to the markets. Secondly, further down side is still expected in the global stock markets which will, in turn, trigger rally in dollar and yen. Though, it could either be European led or US led. And hence, close attention will be paid to growth data from Eurozone and UK which could trigger much volatility in the stock markets as well as the forex markets.
By ActionForex

October 09 2008

US stocks slump as UK invests in banks

US financial stocks slumped to their lowest level since 1997 on Tuesday as the escalating global credit crisis forced the UK to announce the partial nationalisation of its banking system.

Gordon Brown, UK prime minister, agreed to inject £35bn-£50bn ($61bn-$88bn) into several of the biggest UK banks, after a crisis of confidence sent financial shares plummeting. RBS fell 39 per cent to add to a 20 per cent tumble the day before. Rival HBOS has fallen more than 50 per cent over two days.
The UK turmoil was followed by an afternoon sell-off on Wall Street that saw the S&P 500 drop 5.7 per cent, taking it below the psychologically important level of 1,000 for the first time in four years. The S&P financials index dropped 11.5 per cent to its lowest level in 11 years. It is now 58 per cent down from its peak last year.

Bank of America led the US financial sector lower as its shares fell 26 per cent, knocking $38bn off its market value. It was harmed by a poor reaction to its earnings for the third quarter, which it announced after the market closed on Monday, and by speculation that it would have difficulty raising capital to finance its acquisition of Merrill Lynch.

Morgan Stanley closed 25 per cent lower, having fallen 40 per cent at one point, in spite of reassuring investors that its agreement to raise up to $9bn in capital from Mitsubishi UFJ Group of Japan remained in place.

Credit markets, however, were relatively stable, as traders reacted to strong hints from Ben Bernanke, Federal Reserve chairman, of rate cuts in the offing. Early indications suggested that the rates at which banks lend to each other would fall today, although only marginally.

Several other governments announced rescue packages for their domestic banks. Spain became the first European country to follow the US in offering to buy assets from its banks to restore liquidity, announcing an emergency fund worth €30-€50bn ($41bn-$68bn).

Earlier, Russia had said it would pump $37bn in long-term subordinated loans into state-controlled banks, and suspended share trading for a second successive day, in another bid to quell the crisis.

The UK scheme is expected to be executed through the government acquiring preferred shares. Mr Brown is expected to insist the taxpayer receives generous dividends and profits if share prices recover.

Royal Bank of Scotland, Barclays and Lloyds TSB – which is in the midst of a takeover of HBOS – are expected to be the main recipients of the capital. It was unclear whether HSBC, which already has stronger capital reserves, would participate in the plan, although if it does it is likely to take a smaller amount.

Details may not be given until this morning, although Mr Brown’s team said a statement would be given before the London markets opened.

The plan could include provisions to ensure government representation on the boards of the banks and possible caps on future remuneration for bank chiefs, as well as a fund to ensure they can continue to fund day-to-day operations.

Mr Brown had wanted more time to develop a package, but was pressed into acting by the markets, after reports circulated that banks were demanding an injection of public money.

by Chris Giles | Victor Mallet and Mark Mulligan FT.com

October 09 2008

Global Rate Cut: You’ ve Made History!

Shortly after the unprecedented $700B financial bailout plan was passed, the Fed acted together with major central banks to cut interest rates. The Fed announced to reduce its key federal funds lending rate and discount rate by 50bps to 1.5% and 1.75%, respectively. In Europe, both ECB and the Bank of England ratcheted the rates by 0.5% to 3.75% and 4.5% respectively. The central banks of Canada, Sweden and Switzerland also lowered their key rates. In Asia, China joined by trimming its key rate by 27bps. It’s the first time that global banking authorities worked together to cut interest rates in order to stimulate economy and restore market confidence.

As expected, dollar fell against other major currencies upon the rate cut across the board. In NY morning, USD fell to 1.3663 from 1.3645 (Tuesday afternoon) and 1.7323 from 1.7510 (Tuesday afternoon) against Euro and Sterling. It also lost grounds against Yen, Canadian dollars and Swiss francs.

Reducing interest rates so abruptly indicated financial crisis has intensified. Accompanied with recent weak economic data, recession does not only spread from the US to Europe but also to Asia Pacific regions. World economic slowdown induced investors’ worries on oil demand growth.

Although crude oil for November delivery bounced to 90.99 after making a low at 86.05, 8-month low, renewed selling pressure after release of the disappointing weekly inventory report forced the black gold to trade below $90/bbl again (currently at 87.00). As 93.02 resistance holds, we maintain our near-term bearish view on crude oil price and expect price would fall to 85.42 (Jan 08 low) first.

Demand has been slowing very rigorously in developed countries. According to Credit Suisse, OECD consumption has fallen 3-4%. The market has dried up. There’s no way for traders to access to credit and therefore they have to deleverage their positions. EIA also slash world oil demand growth next year by 140 000 bbl/day.

EIA has just released report petroleum inventory. Crude oil inventory unexpectedly increased by 8.123 mmb, much higher than consensus of 2 mmb. As for gasoline, the build of 7.2 mmb also exceed market forecast of 1 mmb. Although distillate stockpile fell last week, the less than 1mmb draw was lower than 1mmb reduction as expected by the analysts.

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October 09 2008

Markets Shrug off Coordinated Rate Cuts

Action Insight Mid-Day Report

Federal Reserve, European Central Bank, Bank of England, Bank of Canada, Swiss National Bank and Sweden’s Riksbank join forces today in a historical, emergency, coordinated global rate cuts by 50bps ease save the world’s economies from the worst crisis since the Great Depression. Fed, ECB, BoE, BoC and Riksbank will cut by 50bps. SNB cut by 25bps. PBoC of China also joins to cut by 27bps. BoJ didn’t participate but said it supports the move.

The resulting interest rates are:

  • Fed - 1.50%
  • ECB - 3.75%
  • BoE - 4.50%
  • BoC - 2.50%
  • SNB - 2.50%
  • Riksbank - 4.25%

Equity markets response positively to the announcement initially with FTSE 100 turned positive. However, European stock markets lacked follow through strength and turned south again. US stock indices are mixed in tight range.

In the forex markets, yen gives back earlier gains against most major currencies but in general, it’s still holding in established tight range. Dollar also continues to consolidate against most major currencies. Aussie recovers after diving to as low as 0.6445 earlier today. However, note that key near term levels still holds. Dollar index retreats mildly but is still holding above 80 level. There is no change in the yen and dollar bullish outlook.

Earlier today, UK government announced a plan to invest about 50b pounds to prevent collapse of the UK banking system. The government will buy preference shares and BoE will make 200b or above available for banks to borrow under the special liquidity plan. UK government will also provide a guarantee of 250b pounds to help refinance debts. Tomorrow’s BoE meeting is cancelled after today’s rate cut.

On the data front, US pending home sales beat expectations by rising 7.4% mom in Aug. Canadian housing starts rose slightly from revised 217k to 218k in Aug. Germany industrial production rose 3.4% mom, 1.7% yoy in Aug. Eurozone Q2 GDP was finalized at -0.2% qoq, 1.4% yoy.

September 07 2008

Fed Funds Futures Expect No Change In Rates Next Meeting as Unemployment Soars

(CEP News)- On a day that saw the U.S. employment rate climb to 6.1% and mortgage delinquencies hit a 29-year high, Fed funds futures are now pricing in a 98% chance that the Federal Reserve will hold rates at the next meeting scheduled for September 16.
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September 05 2008

Fed Funds Futures Increase Rate Hold Expectations After Fed Yellen’s Comment

(CEP News) -Fed funds futures are now pricing in a 94% chance that the Fed will not raise rates at the next meeting scheduled for Sept. 16 on a day that saw a higher-than-expected U.S. jobless claims report along with San Francisco Fed President Janet Yellen’s comments that a rate cut is possible but unlikely.
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September 05 2008

Fed Funds Futures Price in Rate Hold on Weak U.S. Employment Report

(CEP News)- On a day that saw the U.S. employment rate climb to 6.1% and mortgage delinquencies hit a 29-year high, Fed funds futures are now pricing in a 98% chance that the Federal Reserve will hold rates at the next meeting scheduled for September 16.
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September 05 2008

What’s Priced in: Current Market Expectations for Future Monetary Policy

(CEP News) - Markets are currently pricing in the following probabilities for future interest rate moves as of the close on Thursday:
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September 04 2008

Fed Funds Futures Expectation For Rate Hold Increases on SF Fed Comments

(CEP News) -Fed funds futures are now pricing in a 94% chance that fed will not raise rates at the next meeting scheduled for September 16 on a day that saw a higher than expected U.S. jobless claims report along with San Francisco Fed President Janet Yellen comments that a rate cut is possible but unlikely
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