USD/CHF Weekly Outlook

USD/CHF pulled back sharply to as low as 1.1208 last week but rebounded equally strongly to as high as 1.1709 to close the week just mildly lower. The correction from 1.1746 should have completed and initial bias will be on the upside this week as long as 1.1471 minor support holds. Retest of 1.1746 high should be seen. Break will confirm that medium term up trend has resumed for next target of 1.1878 cluster resistance. On the downside, below 1.1471 will turn intraday outlook neutral again.

In the bigger picture, while a short term top is in place, there is no confirmation of a medium term reversal yet as long as the mentioned rising trend line support (1.0010, 1.0693, now at 1.1090) holds. Medium term rise from 0.9634 is still expected to extend further to 1.1878 (61.8% retracement of 1.3283 to 0.9634 at 1.1889) after completing the current correction. However, sustained break of the trend line support will argue that the medium term rise might have finished and will turn focus back to 1.0693 support. Read the rest of this entry »

Last week’s fall from 1.1486 to 1.1126 was deeper than we expected. Nevertheless, Friday’s rally and break of 1.1341 confirmed that it’s completed. More importantly, this leaves such decline in three wave corrective structure and thus reaffirm that it’s just a correction to rise from 1.0693. In other words, the short term bullish outlook remains intact. Further rally should be seen this week to retest 1.1486 resistance first. Break will confirm that recent up trend has resumed for next target of 1.1596 cluster resistance. On the downside, though, below 1.1261 minor support will indicate that up trend is not ready to resume yet and more correction should be see to retest 1.1126 low before completion. Read the rest of this entry »

EURUSD
Buy @ 1.3930
Sell @ 1.3475
TP 140 pips
SL 100 pips
Move SL to Entry after 70 pips

GBPUSD
Buy @ 1.7890
Sell @ 1.7450
TP 200 pips
SL 120 pips
Move SL to Entry after 85 pips

USDCHF
Buy @ 1.1490
Sell @ 1.1110
TP 100 pips
SL 70 pips
Move SL to Entry after 60 pips

USDJPY
Buy @ 107.10
Sell @ — No Signal
TP 80 pips
SL 70 pips
Move SL to Entry after 50 pips

USDCAD
Buy @ 1.0940
Sell @ 1.0710
TP 120 pips
SL 80 pips
Move SL to Entry after 60 pips

AUDUSD
Buy @ — No Signal
Sell Limit @ 0.7670
TP 250 pips
SL 120 pips
Move SL to Entry after 80 pips

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1171; (P) 1.1272; (R1) 1.1415

Action Insight Mid-Day Report

Dollar Remains Firm

Dollar remains firm throughout the day, supported by oil’s dip below $114 level. Hurricane Ike seems to be heading south of Gulf Coast and is expected to miss key oil and gas installations. Saudi Oil Minister Ali Naimi suggested that Saudi prefers not to tighten oil supply. Kuwait’s oil minister Mohammed Abdullah Al-Aleem also said that there is no need for OPEC to cut production. Technically speaking, the greenback is still in up trend with the dollar index continuing to press 80 level. While the trend is still clear in EUR/USD, GBP/USD and USD/CHF, outlook in USD/JPY remains mixed as strength in both dollar and yen are countering each other.

Data from US saw pending home sales dropped more than expected by -3.2% mom in Jul, wholesale inventories rose more than expected by 1.4% in Jul. Canadian housing starts rose to 211k in Aug.

Sterling paid little attention to worse than expected data from the UK. Industrial production dropped more than expected by -0.4% mom, -1.9% yoy in Jul. Manufacturing production dropped -0.2% mom, -1.4% yoy. RICS house price balance improved a bit from -83% to -81% while BRC retail sales monitor showed -1.0% contraction.

Other data released today saw Australia retail sales recovered much less than expected by 0.1% in Jul only. AUD/USD is back pressing 0.8 key medium term support. Germany trade surplus came in much narrower than expected at 13.9b on much stronger than expected rise in imports by 7.4% mom. Exports dropped -1.7% mom. Japan Machine Tools orders dropped -14.2% yoy.

USD/CHF Mid-Day Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1171; (P) 1.1272; (R1) 1.1415

USD/CHF turns sideway after surging to as high as 1.1370. Short term outlook remains bullish. Intraday bias remains on the upside and further rally is expected to next target of 1.1596 medium term cluster resistance (161.8% projection of 0.9634 to 1.0623 from 1.0010 at 1.1610.). On the downside, below 1.1227 minor support will turn intraday outlook neutral and bring retreat. Nevertheless, consolidation should be relatively brief as long as 1.1009 support holds and bring rally resumption. Though, below 1.1009 will indicate that a short term top is finally formed and will bring deeper decline towards 1.0632 resistance turned support or lower.

In the bigger picture, the break of cluster resistance at 1.0999/1028 (100% projection of 0.9634 to 1.0623 from 1.0010 at 1.0999, 38.2% retracement of 1.3283 to 0.9634 at 1.1028) affirms the medium term bullish outlook, indicating that whole rise from 0.9634 is possibly impulsive in nature. Weekly MACD and RSI broke its down trend with weekly MACD turned positive also support this. Further rally should be seen to test next two cluster resistance, 1.1596 (161.8% projection of 0.9634 to 1.0623 from 1.0010 at 1.1610) and 1.1878 (61.8% retracement of 1.3283 to 0.9634 at 1.1889). On the downside, sustained trading below 1.0632 support will raise the odds that whole medium term rebound from 0.9634 has completed and will put focus back to trend line support at 1.0166.

Read the rest of this entry »

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1106; (P) 1.1148; (R1) 1.1227

USD/CHF’s rally extends further to as high as 1.1294 today and is now pressing long term support turned resistance at 1.1288 (04 low). At this point, intraday bias remains on the upside and further rally is still expected to next upside target of 1.1596 medium term cluster resistance (161.8% projection of 0.9634 to 1.0623 from 1.0010 at 1.1610.). On the downside, below 1.1123 minor support will turn intraday outlook neutral and bring retreat. Nevertheless, consolidation should be relatively brief as long as 1.0882 support holds and bring rally resumption. Though, below 1.0882 will indicate that a short term top is finally formed and will bring deeper decline to 1.0632 resistance turned support or lower.

In the bigger picture, the break of cluster resistance at 1.0999/1028 (100% projection of 0.9634 to 1.0623 from 1.0010 at 1.0999, 38.2% retracement of 1.3283 to 0.9634 at 1.1028) affirms the medium term bullish outlook, indicating that whole rise from 0.9634 is possibly impulsive in nature. Weekly MACD and RSI broke its down trend with weekly MACD turned positive also support this. Further rally should be seen to test next two cluster resistance, 1.1596 (161.8% projection of 0.9634 to 1.0623 from 1.0010 at 1.1610) and 1.1878 (61.8% retracement of 1.3283 to 0.9634 at 1.1889). On the downside, sustained trading below 1.0632 support will raise the odds that whole medium term rebound from 0.9634 has completed and will put focus back to trend line support at 1.0166.

Read the rest of this entry »

EUR USD

The Euro advanced lower versus the US dollar, breaking long term support at 1.4365 formed by January’s low. Trading below 1.4300 and 1.4365 indicates a selloff signal towards fresh downtrend lows into the 1.4100 region. The downside remains under pressure and the Euro will most likely maintain a heavy tone while current resistance at 1.4365 stays intact. Intraday studies are bullish due to the minor pullback which is underway. Large moves are expected today across the board due to the NFP release in the US. Current quote is 1.4292 @06:30 GMT

Support levels: 1.4260, 1.4215, 1.4150 and 1.4100.
Resistance levels: 1.4300/10, 1.4365, 1.4390 and 1.4435.
Market sentiment: long-term : bullish, mid-term : bearish, short-term : bearish
AUD USD
Support is now formed at .8130 backed by .8100 while resistance starts at .8200 followed by .8235, .8300 and .8400. Both daily and intraday studies are bearish and the support into the .8100-.8130 zone remains on focus while the Aussie dollar trades below .8235. A potential break on the upside should extend towards the .8300 mark but rallies are expected to be sold fast. Current quote is .8176 @06:30 GMT

Support levels: .8130, .8100 and .8050.
Resistance levels: .8200, .8235 and .8300.
Market sentiment: long-term : bullish, mid-term : bearish , short-term : bearish
EUR CHF
Intraday resistance is formed at 1.5950 followed by the recent support zone at 1.5970/85 which has been breached on yesterday and should provide a barrier on the upside for now. Support is seen at 1.5850 backed by 1.5810/15. The short term studies are bearish while the intraday ones are slightly bullish. Current quote is 1.5885 @06:30 GMT
Support levels: 1.5850, 1.5810/15 and 1.5750.
Resistance levels: 1.5900, 1.5950 and 1.5970/85.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0908; (P) 1.0960; (R1) 1.1037;

USD/CHF’s outlook remains neutral for the moment as the pair continues to be bounded in tight range after failing to sustain above 1.0999/1028 resistance zone. On the upside, sustained trading above 1.0999/1028 resistance zone is needed to confirm recent rally has resumed for next key medium term resistance at 1.1596. On the downside, break of 1.0842 support will indicate that rise from 1.0010 has topped out with bearish divergence condition in 4 hours MACD and RSI and bring deeper correction before staging another rise.

In the bigger picture, the case that whole medium term down trend from 1.3283 has completed continues to build up with weekly MACD and RSI breaking their own down trend. Nevertheless, focus remains on the mentioned cluster resistance at 1.0999/1028 (100% projection of 0.9634 to 1.0623 from 1.0010 at 1.0999, 38.2% retracement of 1.3283 to 0.9634 at 1.1028). Sustained break of this resistance zone will indicate that whole rise from 0.9634 is possibly impulsive in nature and should target next cluster resistance at 1.1596 (161.8% projection of 0.9634 to 1.0623 from 1.0010 at 1.1610). On the downside, a break below 1.0010 support is needed to confirm rise from 0.9634 has finished. Otherwise, further rally is still in favor after pullback.

Expecting the AUD/CHF to Go Bearish

Traders are certain Reserve Bank of Australia policy makers will lower their interest rate by a quarter-percentage point when they meet in September the 2nd

AUD: The Australian dollar is a favorite target of carry trades, in which investors get funds in a country with low borrowing costs and invest in one with higher rates, earning the spread between the two. The risk is that currency market moves erase those profits. Traders are certain Reserve Bank of Australia policy makers will lower their interest rate by a quarter-percentage point when they meet in September the 2nd, according to interest-rate futures trading on the Sydney Futures Exchange. When the dollar is going up and commodities are coming off, that’s a problem for the Australian dollar as it depends on the price of gold due to the fact that it is one of its major exports.

CHF: The Swiss franc is commonly used for carry trades as the base interest rate stands at 2.25%. Today the Swiss consumption Indicator came out for July which was worse than last month. Many economists have been expecting a slowdown in exports and the financial sector

Technical

The momentum and the RSI are in a major bearish trend but we see some divergence in the minor trend as the momentum broke the zero line and pointing upward. The MACD is after a bearish cross when the fast line has broken the zero line. The break of the zero line proves a strong signal for a further downward trend. The prices are trading above the parabolic SAR and broke the 20 and 50 MA lines but the 50 days MA is still pointing down. The Bollinger bands are close indicating a possible expanded move of the prices after drifting a bit sideways in the last few months.

AUD/CHF the overall trend is in a bearish direction

AUD/CHF is trading in a range over the past couple of months

AUD/CHF over the past few days the pair has been trading sideways

By Finotec Group Inc.
http://www.finotec.com/

USD/CHF edges briefly above mentioned 1.0999/1028 resistance zone and reaches as high as 1.0994 earlier today. Recent raise from 1.0010 is tentatively treated as resumed. At this point, intraday bias remains on the upside as long as 1.0922 minor support holds and further rise should be seen to next key medium term resistance at 1.1596. On the downside, below 1.0922 will turn intraday outlook neutral first. Further break of 1.0842 support will indicate that rise from 1.0010 has topped out and bring deeper correction before staging another rise.

In the bigger picture, the case that whole medium term down trend from 1.3283 has completed continues to build up with weekly MACD and RSI breaking their own down trend. Nevertheless, focus remains on the mentioned cluster resistance at 1.0999/1028 (100% projection of 0.9634 to 1.0623 from 1.0010 at 1.0999, 38.2% retracement of 1.3283 to 0.9634 at 1.1028). Sustained break of this resistance zone will indicate that whole rise from 0.9634 is possibly impulsive in nature and should target next cluster resistance at 1.1596 (161.8% projection of 0.9634 to 1.0623 from 1.0010 at 1.1610). On the downside, a break below 1.0010 support is needed to confirm rise from 0.9634 has finished. Otherwise, further rally is still in favor after pullback.