USD/CAD Mid-Day Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2056; (P) 1.2212; (R1) 1.2321

USD/CAD continues to stay in established range of 1.1985 and 1.2389 as triangle consolidation continues. Though, short term outlook remains unchanged. Further rally is still in favor. Also, fall from 1.3005 should have completed at 1.1818. Break of 1.2514 resistance will confirm this case and bring retest of 1.3005/15 resistance zone. On the downside, though, below 1.1985 will indicate that fall from 1.3005 is probably resuming towards 1.1464 support instead.

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USD/CAD Mid-Day Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2104; (P) 1.2165; (R1) 1.2260

USD/CAD’s rise today suggests that sideway trading from 1.2389 might be completed. Intraday bias is now on the upside as long as 1.2065 minor support holds and further rise should be seen towards 1.2514 resistance. As discussed before, fall from 1.3005 might have completed at 1.1818 already. Break of 1.2514 resistance will confirm this case and bring retest of 1.3005/15 resistance zone. On the downside, though, below 1.2065 will indicate that fall from 1.3005 is probably resuming 1.1464 support instead. Read the rest of this entry »

Daily Pivots: (S1) 86.46; (P) 87.84; (R1) 88.59

USD/JPY’s recovery from 87.13 breaches 89.24 minor resistance briefly, suggesting that an intraday low in in place. Intraday outlook is turned neutral for the moment and some recovery could be seen. Nevertheless, upside is expected to be limited below 91.57 resistance and bring fall resumption. Below 87.13 will target 100% projection of 124.13 to 95.77 from 110.66 at 82.30. Read the rest of this entry »

GBP/JPY Mid-Day Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 137.32; (P) 138.20; (R1) 139.59

GBP/JPY’s recovery from 133.09 was limited below 140.71 resistance and weakens again today. 4 hours MACD’s cross below signal line indicates that an intraday top is formed and dampens the immediate bullish case. Intraday outlook is turned neutral for the moment. On the upside, above 140.71 will indicate that rise from 133.09 has resumed. Also this will affirm the case that a short term bottom is in place at 133.09 and bring rally towards 148.57 resistance next. Break there will confirm this case. On the downside, though, below 133.09 will indicate recent down trend is still in progress for key long term support at 129.32 before completion. Read the rest of this entry »

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3274; (P) 1.3345; (R1) 1.3438

EUR/USD’s rise continues in early US session and reaches as high as 1.3585 so far, taking out mentioned 100% projection of 1.2329 to 1.3290 from 1.2549 at 1.3510. At this point, intraday bias remains on the upside as long as 1.3430 minor support holds. Focus now turns to 1.3768 cluster resistance. On the downside, below 1.3430 minor support will turn intraday outlook neutral first. But another rise is still in favor as long as 1.3250 support holds. Read the rest of this entry »

EurUsd Market broke on the upside the November triangle consolidation pattern. It’s been trading as high as 1.3406 yesterday erasing the last 6-week trading range 1.2330 – 1.3298. This may open the way to 1.3500 target equal to 1.3302-1.2334 spread. On the further upside, only a return over 1.4000 (former trendline support) and 1.5000 will confirm release of the 3-month pressure and may put key resistance 1.6000 into focus. Resistance holds 1.4002 former trendline support. Initial resistance holds 1.3406 yesterday high. On the downside, renewed weakness below 1.2430 21st November low may open the way down to trendline support 1.2208. Next long-term support holds 1.1640 November 2005 low. Further support holds 1.0739 September 2003 low. Former resistance 1.3298 holds now initial support.
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USD/JPY Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 90.75; (P) 91.81; (R1) 92.47

USD/JPY falls sharply to as low as 88.54 today and the strong break of 90.92 low confirms that decline from 110.66 has resumed. At this point, short term outlook will remain bearish as long as 91.15 resistance holds. The current decline is expected to extend further to next target of 100% projection of 124.13 to 95.77 from 110.66 at 82.3. On the upside, while some recovery might be seen, break of 93.90 resistance is needed to indicate that a bottom is in place. Otherwise, short term risks remain on the downside. Read the rest of this entry »

Daily Pivots: (S1) 91.70; (P) 92.58; (R1) 93.09

USD/JPY dips further to 92.06 and at this point, intraday bias remains on the downside as long as 93.46 minor resistance holds. The fall from 100.54 is still expected to extend further to retest 90.92 low. However, note that the lack of impulsive structure of the fall from 100.54 so far is still arguing that it might be part of the consolidation that started at 90.92. Hence, sustained break of 90.92 is needed to confirm medium term down trend has resumed. On the upside, above 93.46 will turn intraday outlook neutral first. Further break of 95.74 resistance will indicate that fall from 100.54 has possibly completed. The corrective structure in turn suggests that consolidation from 90.92 is still in progress and stronger rally should be seen to retest 100.54 before completion.

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Daily Pivots: (S1) 92.30; (P) 93.94; (R1) 94.82

USD/JPY recovers mildly after hitting 92.64 earlier today. Though, at this point, intraday bias remains on the downside as long as 94.25 minor resistance holds. Decline from 100.54 could extend further to retest 90.92 low. On the upside, above 94.25 will turn intraday outlook neutral first. Also, note that the lack of impulsive structure of the fall from 100.54 so far is still arguing that it might be part of the consolidation that started at 90.92. Above 95.74 will indicate that fall from 100.54 has possibly completed. The corrective structure in turn suggests that rebound from 90.92 is still in progress and stronger rally should be seen to 100.54 or above before completion. Read the rest of this entry »

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.5283; (P) 1.5355; (R1) 1.5428

GBP/USD’s break of 1.5178 minor support indicates that corrective rise from 1.4557 should have completed with three waves up to 1.5534. Intraday bias flipped back to the downside for retesting 1.4557 low first and break will confirm that recent decline has resumed for next medium term target at 1.3680. On the upside, while another another rise cannot be ruled out, upside is still expected to be limited by 1.5600 cluster resistance (50% retracement of 1.6671 to 1.4557 at 1.5614). However, decisive break of 1.5600/14 will be the first alert that whole fall from 1.8668 has completed and strong rebound might follow targeting 1.6671 resistance.

In the bigger picture, there are some different interpretations of the structure of the whole down trend from 2.1161, with different projection targets. Main question is whether fall from 1.8668 is the fifth wave in the five wave sequence from 2.1161 (1.9337, 2.0158, 1.7445, 1.8668, ?) or it’s the third wave inside the fall from 2.0158. In either case, fall from 1.8668 is possibly completing a five wave sequence of its own. Strong rebound above 1.4278/4310 cluster projection target (100% projection of 1.7630 to 1.5269 from 1.6671 at 1.4310, 161.8% projection of 2.0158 to 1.7445 from 1.8668 at 1.4278), followed by break of 1.5600 resistance will suggests that a medium term bottom is formed and bring larger scale correction. Though, sustained trading below 1.4278/4310 will target 1.3680 key long term support (01 low).

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