Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3274; (P) 1.3345; (R1) 1.3438

EUR/USD’s rise continues in early US session and reaches as high as 1.3585 so far, taking out mentioned 100% projection of 1.2329 to 1.3290 from 1.2549 at 1.3510. At this point, intraday bias remains on the upside as long as 1.3430 minor support holds. Focus now turns to 1.3768 cluster resistance. On the downside, below 1.3430 minor support will turn intraday outlook neutral first. But another rise is still in favor as long as 1.3250 support holds. Read the rest of this entry »

EurUsd Market broke on the upside the November triangle consolidation pattern. It’s been trading as high as 1.3406 yesterday erasing the last 6-week trading range 1.2330 – 1.3298. This may open the way to 1.3500 target equal to 1.3302-1.2334 spread. On the further upside, only a return over 1.4000 (former trendline support) and 1.5000 will confirm release of the 3-month pressure and may put key resistance 1.6000 into focus. Resistance holds 1.4002 former trendline support. Initial resistance holds 1.3406 yesterday high. On the downside, renewed weakness below 1.2430 21st November low may open the way down to trendline support 1.2208. Next long-term support holds 1.1640 November 2005 low. Further support holds 1.0739 September 2003 low. Former resistance 1.3298 holds now initial support.
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Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2695; (P) 1.2824; (R1) 1.3084

EUR/USD surges further to as high as 1.3080 in early US session and at this point, intraday bias remains on the upside as long as 1.2803 minor support holds. As discussed before, rise from 1.2423 should represent another rising leg of the consolidation that started at 1.2329 and further rally could be seen to 1.3290 or above. Though, upside is still expected to be limited below 1.3768 cluster resistance and bring down trend resumption. On the downside, below will turn intraday outlook neutral first. Further break of 1.2423 will indicate that such consolidation has likely completed and recent down trend is resuming for 50% retracement of 0.8223 to 1.6038 at 1.2131 next. Read the rest of this entry »

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2555; (P) 1.2628; (R1) 1.2689

EUR/USD’s strong rally in early US session suggests that rebound from 1.2389 is resuming. At this point, intraday bias is mildly on the upside as long as 1.2585 minor support holds. Further rise is in favor to 1.3290 high and 100% projection of 1.2329 to 1.3290 from 1.2389 at 1.3350 to complete the consolidation from 1.2329. Nevertheless, upside is expected be limited below 1.3768 cluster resistance and bring down trend resumption. On the downside, below 1.2585 will flip intraday bias back to the downside and break of 1.2389 will be an important indication that consolidation from 1.2329 has completed and recent down trend has resumed for next target of 50% retracement of 0.8223 to 1.6038 at 1.2131

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Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2488; (P) 1.2672; (R1) 1.2955

EUR/USD’s strong rebound from 1.2389 indicates that an intraday low is in place and more importantly, it invalidated the triangle breakout scenario and suggests that consolidation from 1.2329 is still in progress. Intraday bias is flipped back to the upside and further rebound could be seen towards 1.3290 high. Though, there is no change in the broader view that price actions from 1.2329 is merely consolidation in the larger down trend. Upside of the current rise from 1.2389 is still expected to be limited below 1.3768 cluster resistance and bring down trend resumption. On the downside, below 1.2591 will turn intraday outlook neutral again. Further break of 1.2389 will be an important indication that recent down trend has resumed for next target of 50% retracement of 0.8223 to 1.6038 at 1.2131

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EUR/USD continued to engage in choppy sideway consolidation between 1.2329 and 1.3290 last week. As discussed before, with EUR/USD just missed 38.2% retracement of 1.4867 to 1.2329 at 1.3299, it’s believed that fall from 1.4867 has completed. Consolidation from 1.2329 is still in progress and is probably developing into triangle pattern. Nevertheless, in any case, firstly, as long as 1.2329 low holds, such consolidation could extend further. Secondly, in case of another rise, upside should be limited below 1.3768 cluster resistance. And more importantly, the path of the consolidation will remain unpredictable. Read the rest of this entry »

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2655; (P) 1.2851; (R1) 1.3177

EUR/USD’s rise from 1.2525 extends further to 1.3114 after mild retreat today. At this point, intraday bias remains on the upside as long as 1.2797 minor support holds. As discussed before, the corrective structure of the fall from 1.3290 to 1.2525 suggests that rebound from 1.2329 is resuming and further upside is in favor to retest 1.3290 high first. On the downside, though, below 1.2525 will flip intraday bias back to the downside for retesting 1.2329 low.

As discussed before, there is no doubt that a short term bottom is in place at 1.2329. With EUR/USD just missed 38.2% retracement of 1.4867 to 1.2329 at 1.3299, it’s believed that fall from 1.4867 has completed too and EUR/USD is developing into choppy sideway consolidation in the larger down trend from 1.6038. Note that the path and length of the current consolidation could be quite unpredictable. Nevertheless, firstly, intraday upside momentum should start to diminish again in 1.3258/3768 resistance zone even in case of another rise. Secondly, as long as 1.2329 low holds, such consolidation could extend further. A break out on either side is needed to confirm that the consolidation has completed.

In the bigger picture, as discussed before, the strength of the fall from 1.6038 reinforces the case that whole decline from 1.6038 is developing into a five wave impulsive fall. The completed decline from 1.4867 to 1.2329 might represent the third wave decline in the five wave sequence. Consolidation from 1.2329 might represent the fourth wave consolidation. Hence, another decline is still expected before making a medium term bottom. Below 1.2329 will target next long term fibonacci level of 50% retracement of 0.8223 to 1.6038 at 1.2131 or even further to 1.1639 key medium term support. On the upside, sustained break of 1.3768 cluster resistance (38.2% retracement of 1.6038 to 1.2329 at 1.3746) is needed to invalidate this view and indicate that whole decline from 1.6038 has made a medium term bottom.

EUR/USD Weekly Outlook

After edging lower to 1.2329 early last week, EUR/USD staged a strong rebound to as high as 1.3290. Even though EUR/USD weakens again towards the end of last week, it still ended the week higher. There is no doubt that a short term bottom is in place at 1.2329. With EUR/USD just missed 38.2% retracement of 1.4867 to 1.2329 at 1.3299, it’s believed that fall from 1.4687 has completed too and EUR/USD is developing into choppy sideway consolidation in the larger down trend from 1.6038.

Note that the path and length of the current consolidation could be quite unpredictable. Nevertheless, firstly, intraday upside momentum should start to diminish again in 1.3258/3768 resistance zone even in case of another rise. Secondly, as long as 1.2329 low holds, such consolidation could extend further. A break out on either side is needed to confirm that the consolidation has completed.

In the bigger picture, as discussed before, the strength of the fall from 1.6038 reinforces the case that whole decline from 1.6038 is developing into a five wave impulsive fall. The completed decline from 1.4867 to 1.2329 might represent the third wave decline in the five wave sequence. Consolidation from 1.2329 might represent the fourth wave consolidation. Hence, another decline is still expected before making a medium term bottom. Below 1.2329 will target next long term fibonacci level of 50% retracement of 0.8223 to 1.6038 at 1.2131 or even further to 1.1639 key medium term support. On the upside, sustained break of 1.3768 cluster resistance (38.2% retracement of 1.6038 to 1.2329 at 1.3746) is needed to invalidate this view and indicate that whole decline from 1.6038 has made a medium term bottom. Read the rest of this entry »

EUR/USD Weekly Outlook

EUR/USD’s down trend resumed last week and fell sharply to as low as 1.2496. Friday’s recovery after drawing support from the short term fall channel, with 4 hours MACD crossed above signal line, argues that a short term bottom might be in place. Though, break of 1.2754 minor resistance is needed to confirm. Otherwise, intraday bias remains on the downside and further fall should be seen to 100% projection of 1.4867 to 1.3258 from 1.3768 at 1.2159 next. Break of 1.2754 will bring stronger recovery to 1.3004 resistance or above. But upside should be limited by 1.3258 resistance and bring down trend resumption.

In the bigger picture, some key important long term support levels were taken out last week without much hesitation. The strength of the fall as well as the breaking of 100% projection of 1.6038 to 1.3381 from 1.4867 at 1.2710 reinforces that case that whole decline from 1.6038 is developing into a five wave impulsive fall. As mentioned before, if this is true, EUR/USD is probably still in the middle of it and should eventually extend to below 1.1639 key long term support before making a medium term bottom. Break of 1.3768 resistance is needed to invalidate this view and indicates that a medium term bottom is formed earlier than we thought. Otherwise, medium term outlook will remain bearish even in case of strong rebound. Read the rest of this entry »

EUR/USD spent last week bounded inside range of 1.3258 and 1.3785. As discussed before, with 1.3785 resistance intact, price actions from 1.3258 are treated as consolidation to fall from 1.4867 only and there is no indication of a bottom yet. Further decline is still expected even though the current choppy sideway trading might extend further. Break of 1.3258 will confirm that recent fall has resumed for next long term fibonacci level at 1.3053. On the upside, though, a break above 1.3785 will indicate that a short term bottom is at least formed, probably in form of a head and shoulder bottom pattern. Stronger rebound should then be seen and focus will be back to trend line resistance at 1.4408.

In the bigger picture, note that EUR/USD is now sitting in an important long term support zone with 38.2% retracement of 0.8223 (00 low) to 1.6038 at 1.3053, and 55 Months EMA at 1.3361. Developments in the new few weeks will be important to the long term outlook. Firstly, fall from 1.4687 as well as that from 1.6038 is still in progress as long as 1.3785 resistance holds. Sustained trading below mentioned 1.3053 fibo resistance and 55 months EMA will affirm that medium downside momentum is still strong in EUR/USD. Further break of 100% projection of 1.6038 to 1.3381 from 1.4867 at 1.2710 will add more credence to the case that whole down trend from 1.6038 is developing into a five wave impulsive decline. In other words, EUR/USD is probably just in the middle of such fall which should extend beyond 1.1639 low before forming a medium term bottom. Read the rest of this entry »