Daily Pivots: (S1) 86.46; (P) 87.84; (R1) 88.59

USD/JPY’s recovery from 87.13 breaches 89.24 minor resistance briefly, suggesting that an intraday low in in place. Intraday outlook is turned neutral for the moment and some recovery could be seen. Nevertheless, upside is expected to be limited below 91.57 resistance and bring fall resumption. Below 87.13 will target 100% projection of 124.13 to 95.77 from 110.66 at 82.30. Read the rest of this entry »

GBP/JPY Mid-Day Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 137.32; (P) 138.20; (R1) 139.59

GBP/JPY’s recovery from 133.09 was limited below 140.71 resistance and weakens again today. 4 hours MACD’s cross below signal line indicates that an intraday top is formed and dampens the immediate bullish case. Intraday outlook is turned neutral for the moment. On the upside, above 140.71 will indicate that rise from 133.09 has resumed. Also this will affirm the case that a short term bottom is in place at 133.09 and bring rally towards 148.57 resistance next. Break there will confirm this case. On the downside, though, below 133.09 will indicate recent down trend is still in progress for key long term support at 129.32 before completion. Read the rest of this entry »

Comex Gold (GC)

Gold’s rise from 698.2 extends further to as high as 820.20 today so far. At this point, intraday bias remains on the upside as long as 786.20 minor support holds. As discussed before, focus is now on resistance zone of 824.5 and 61.8% retracement of 936.3 to 681 at 838.8. Sustained break of mentioned 824.5/838.8 resistance zone will be an early alert that whole correction from 1033.9 has completed and stronger rise should then be seen to test 936.3 resistance first. Read the rest of this entry »

Daily Pivots: (S1) 154.61; (P) 158.15; (R1) 162.61

No change in GBP/JPY’s outlook as consolidation continues inside range of 153.35 and 165.02. While the corrective price actions from 165.02 suggests that further upside is likely, break of this high is still needed to confirm. In such case, the near term falling trend line will also be taken out and stronger rebound should then be seen towards 181.37 resistance. On the downside, note that break of 153.35 minor support will suggest that rise from 139.02 has completed and bring retest of this low. Read the rest of this entry »

GBP/JPY failed to take out 139.02 low last week and rebounded strongly to as high as 165.02 instead. Subsequent retreat indicates that an intraday top is formed and turned outlook neutral for the moment. Though, a break of 153.35 minor support is needed to indicate rise from 139.02 has completed and bring retest of this low. Otherwise, further upside could still be seen.

In the bigger picture, similar to EUR/JPY the question now is on whether fall from 251.09 has completed a five wave decline already. But in either case, more consolidation should now be seen as long as 139.02 low remains intact. The differences are that if a five wave sequence is already completed, consolidation from 139.02 will extend further towards 181.37 and will take longer time to complete. But in either case, firstly, upside should be limited by 181.37 resistance. Secondly, the long term down trend is still expected to resume after the consolidation. Thirdly, break of 139.02 is needed to confirm that such down trend has resumed.

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GBP/JPY was bounded in consolidation between 165.97 and 181.37 last week. Outlook is neutral for the moment. On the upside, above 178.71 will suggest that rebound from 165.97 has resumed for another test of 181.73 or above. Nevertheless, upside is expected to be limited by 184.47 resistance and bring down trend resumption. On the downside, below 170.39 will bring retest of 165.97 low and break will confirm recent down trend has resumed.

In the bigger picture, regardless of the interpretation of the whole fall from 251.09, the current decline from 215.87 should develop into a five wave decline and should target 148.19 support next. A break above 184.47 support turned resistance is needed to indicate that a medium term bottom is formed and bring larger scale consolidation. Otherwise, medium term outlook will remain bearish even in case of strong rebound. Read the rest of this entry »

Before last week started, European leaders announced a rescue plan that includes state guarantees on bank debts until the end of 2009 with maturities up to five years. The governments are allowed to recapitalize financial institutions by buying bank stakes with preference shares or other instruments. ECB also pledged to look at enlarging access to the system of guarantees to include commercial paper even though it doesn’t have the legal power to do so yet. Germany later passed the bank rescue package which includes up to 400b euros in bank guarantees, 5% provision of losses and recapitalization funds up to 80b euros. France will create an entity to assist banks and guarantee limit will be up to 320b euros. Austria implemented a 100b euros rescue plan which provides support to the banking system mainly via guarantees while the government is also allowed to buy shares in Austrian banks.
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GBP/JPY’s down trend accelerated last week to as low as 165.97, taking out long term rising trend line support decisively. From a short term angle, further decline is still expected as long as 176.39 resistance holds. Sustained break of 100% projection of 215.87 to 184.47 from 197.42 at 166.02 will encourage further fall to next projection level of 100% projection at 146.41, which is close to 148.19 medium term support. On the upside, above 176.39 will indicate that a short term bottom is formed and bring consolidation before staging another fall. Read the rest of this entry »

Daily Pivots: (S1) 174.68; (P) 178.32; (R1) 180.71

GBP/JPY’s break of 174.03 indicates fall from 197.42 has resumed. Further decline is now expected to next short term target of 100% projection of 215.87 to 184.47 from 197.42 at 166.02 first. On the upside, above 182.19 will indicate that a short term bottom might be in place and bring lengthier consolidation before resuming the medium term down trend.

In the bigger picture, 180 psychological support is taken out decisively. GBP/JPY is now pressing long term rising trend line support (129.32, 148.19). Sustained trading below will encourage fall to next medium term target of 100% projection of 251.09 to 192.60 from 215.87 at 157.38 and probably further to 148.19 low. On the upside, above 197.42 is needed to confirm that a medium term bottom is formed. Otherwise, outlook remains bearish.