EurUsd Market broke on the upside the November triangle consolidation pattern. It’s been trading as high as 1.3406 yesterday erasing the last 6-week trading range 1.2330 – 1.3298. This may open the way to 1.3500 target equal to 1.3302-1.2334 spread. On the further upside, only a return over 1.4000 (former trendline support) and 1.5000 will confirm release of the 3-month pressure and may put key resistance 1.6000 into focus. Resistance holds 1.4002 former trendline support. Initial resistance holds 1.3406 yesterday high. On the downside, renewed weakness below 1.2430 21st November low may open the way down to trendline support 1.2208. Next long-term support holds 1.1640 November 2005 low. Further support holds 1.0739 September 2003 low. Former resistance 1.3298 holds now initial support.
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Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.5283; (P) 1.5355; (R1) 1.5428
GBP/USD’s break of 1.5178 minor support indicates that corrective rise from 1.4557 should have completed with three waves up to 1.5534. Intraday bias flipped back to the downside for retesting 1.4557 low first and break will confirm that recent decline has resumed for next medium term target at 1.3680. On the upside, while another another rise cannot be ruled out, upside is still expected to be limited by 1.5600 cluster resistance (50% retracement of 1.6671 to 1.4557 at 1.5614). However, decisive break of 1.5600/14 will be the first alert that whole fall from 1.8668 has completed and strong rebound might follow targeting 1.6671 resistance.
In the bigger picture, there are some different interpretations of the structure of the whole down trend from 2.1161, with different projection targets. Main question is whether fall from 1.8668 is the fifth wave in the five wave sequence from 2.1161 (1.9337, 2.0158, 1.7445, 1.8668, ?) or it’s the third wave inside the fall from 2.0158. In either case, fall from 1.8668 is possibly completing a five wave sequence of its own. Strong rebound above 1.4278/4310 cluster projection target (100% projection of 1.7630 to 1.5269 from 1.6671 at 1.4310, 161.8% projection of 2.0158 to 1.7445 from 1.8668 at 1.4278), followed by break of 1.5600 resistance will suggests that a medium term bottom is formed and bring larger scale correction. Though, sustained trading below 1.4278/4310 will target 1.3680 key long term support (01 low).
GBP/USD 4 Hours Chart - Forex Chart, Forex Rates, Forex Directory, Forex Portal
Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.4609; (P) 1.4781; (R1) 1.4907
GBP/USD’s recovery from 1.4557 extends further today and with 4 hours MACD staying well above signal line, an intraday low should be in place. Some more consolidation is in favor. Above 1.4557 will encourage stronger recovery towards 4 hours 55 EMA (now at 1.5327). But upside should be limited below 1.5600 support turned resistance and bring fall resumption. On the downside, below 1.4557 will target mentioned 100% projection of 1.7630 to 1.5269 from 1.6671 at 1.4310.
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GBP/USD’s down trend resumed last week and dived to as low as 1.4557 before turning sideway. Initial bias remains on the downside this week as long as 1.5080 minor resistance holds and further fall is expected to 100% projection of 1.7630 to 1.5269 from 1.6671 at 1.4310. On the upside, above 1.5080 will turn intraday outlook neutral and bring recovery to 4 hours 55 EMA (now at 1.5428). But upside should be limited below 1.5600 support turned resistance and bring fall resumption.
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Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.4600; (P) 1.4796; (R1) 1.5033
GBP/USD recovers mildly after dipping to 1.4557 but upside is still limited below 1.5080 minor resistance. Intraday bias remains on the downside and further decline is still expected to mentioned target of 161.8% projection of 2.0158 to 1.7445 from 1.8668 at 1.4278. On the upside, above 1.5345 will turn intraday outlook neutral first and bring brief consolidation before staging another fall. Read the rest of this entry »
GBP/JPY’s fall from 165.02 continues today and reaches as low as 147.63 so far. At this point, intraday bias remains on the downside as long as 154.23 minor resistance holds. Further decline is expected to retest 139.02 low first. Break will confirm that recent down trend has resumed. On the upside, above 154.23 will turn intraday outlook neutral. Further break of 157.63 will indicate that consolidation from 139.02 is still in progress and could retest 165.97 resistance before completion. Read the rest of this entry »
Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.5261; (P) 1.5482; (R1) 1.5601
GBP/USD’s fall from 1.6671 extends further to as low as 1.5347 before recovering mildly. At this point, it’s still uncertain on whether such decline represents resumption of the prior down trend or it’s merely part of the consolidation that started at 1.5269. Nevertheless, intraday bias remains on the downside as long as 1.5884 minor resistance holds and retest of 1.5269 low should be seen. Sustained break will confirm that recent down trend has resumed for 161.8% projection of 2.0158 to 1.7445 from 1.8668 at 1.4278 next. On the upside, though, above 1.5884 will suggest that fall from 1.6671 has completed and consolidation from 1.5269 is still in progress for another rise to 1.6771 before completion. Read the rest of this entry »
Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.5700; (P) 1.5949; (R1) 1.6147
GBP/USD is still staying in tight range after rebound from 1.5603 was limited by 4 hours 55 MEA. Intraday outlook remains neutral for the moment. Short term outlook is also mixed with consolidation that started at 1.5269 still in progress. Nevertheless, below 1.5603 will encourage a retest of 1.5269 low. On the upside, above 1.6198 will encourage a retest of 1.6671 resistance. But after all, note that the path of consolidation will remain unpredictable as long as 1.5269 low remains intact. Read the rest of this entry »
Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.5700; (P) 1.5949; (R1) 1.6147
GBP/USD’s rebound from 1.5603 was limited by 4 hours 55 EMA (now at 1.6144) and weakens again. Intraday outlook is turned neutral again. Short term outlook is mixed with consolidation that started at 1.5269 still in progress. Nevertheless, below 1.5603 will encourage a retest of 1.5269 low. On the upside, above 1.6198 will encourage a retest of 1.6671 resistance. But after all, note that the path of consolidation will remain un predictable as long as 1.5269 low remains intact.
In the bigger picture, while rebound from 1.5269 is strong, there is no confirmation of a medium term bottom yet. There are some different interpretations of the structure of the whole down trend from 2.1161, with different projection targets. The most bearish case is that fall from 2.0158 is the third wave in whole fall from 2.1161 while fall from 1.8668 is the third wave of the fall from 2.0158. In other words, GBP/USD is just in the middle of the whole down trend from 2.1161. The least bearish case is that the fall from 1.8668 is the fifth wave of the whole five wave decline from 2.1161 and is nearing an end. Nevertheless, in any case, the fall from 1.8668 needs to complete a five wave structure before considering that a medium term bottom is formed.
Having said that, medium term outlook will remain bearish as long as 1.6786 support turned resistance holds and a new low should be made before making a medium term bottom. However, above 1.6786 will indicate that fall from 1.8668 has possibly completed. It will also be the first alert that a medium term bottom is in place and break of 1.7630 will confirm. In such case, some large scale consolidations will follow.
Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.5884; (P) 1.6194; (R1) 1.6384; More
GBP/USD’s break of .5938 minor support argues that rebound from 1.5269 has already completed at 1.6671. Intraday bias is now flipped back to the downside for retesting 1.5269 low first. On the upside, above 1.6405 will dampen this case and suggest that GBP/USD’s rebound from 1.5269 might still be in progress for 1.6786 support turned resistance. Also, note that a short term bottom is formed in 1.5269 and the consolidation from there could still extend further as long as this support holds. Read the rest of this entry »
