USD/CAD Mid-Day Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2056; (P) 1.2212; (R1) 1.2321

USD/CAD continues to stay in established range of 1.1985 and 1.2389 as triangle consolidation continues. Though, short term outlook remains unchanged. Further rally is still in favor. Also, fall from 1.3005 should have completed at 1.1818. Break of 1.2514 resistance will confirm this case and bring retest of 1.3005/15 resistance zone. On the downside, though, below 1.1985 will indicate that fall from 1.3005 is probably resuming towards 1.1464 support instead.

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USD/CAD Mid-Day Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2104; (P) 1.2165; (R1) 1.2260

USD/CAD’s rise today suggests that sideway trading from 1.2389 might be completed. Intraday bias is now on the upside as long as 1.2065 minor support holds and further rise should be seen towards 1.2514 resistance. As discussed before, fall from 1.3005 might have completed at 1.1818 already. Break of 1.2514 resistance will confirm this case and bring retest of 1.3005/15 resistance zone. On the downside, though, below 1.2065 will indicate that fall from 1.3005 is probably resuming 1.1464 support instead. Read the rest of this entry »

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2106; (P) 1.2246; (R1) 1.2511

USD/CAD’s rise from 1.1464 extends further to as high as 1.2418 before turning sideway. At this point, intraday bias remains on the upside as long as 1.2150 minor support holds. As discussed before, correction from 1.3015 has completed at 1.3015 has completed, ahead of 50% retracement of 0.9823 to 1.3015 at 1.1419. Further rise is expected to retest this 1.3015 high. On the downside, below 1.2150 will turn intraday outlook neutral first. Though, another rally is still in favor as long as pull back is contained above 1.1658 support.

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Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1733; (P) 1.1862; (R1) 1.2069

USD/CAD’s rise lost steam ahead of 1.2022 resistance and retreats mildly. Intraday outlook remains neutral for the moment. As discussed before, break of 1.2022 resistance will indicate rise from 1.1464 has resumed. More importantly, this will reaffirm the case that correction from 1.3015 has completed with three waves down to 1.1464, slightly above 50% retracement of 0.9823 to 1.3015 at 1.1419. In such case, strong rally should be seen to retest 1.3015 high. On the downside, though, below 1.1464 will indicate that fall from 1.3015 has resumed. Read the rest of this entry »

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1693; (P) 1.1905; (R1) 1.2017

USD/CAD’s correction from 1.3015 resumes by taking out 1.1900 low and reaches as low as 1.1630 in early US session. At this point, intraday bias remains on the downside a long as 1.1892 minor resistance holds. Further decline is still expected. Nevertheless, downside of this correction is expected to be contained by 1.1260/1419 support zone (50% retracement of 0.9823 to 1.3015 at 1.1419 and 100% projection of 1.3015 to 1.1900 from 1.2375 at 1.1260 as well as 1.1304 support) and bring up trend resumption. On the upside, above 1.1892 will turn intraday outlook neutral first. Further break of 1.2375 will indicate that fall from 1.3015 has completed and will then bring retest of this high. Read the rest of this entry »

Despite edging higher to 1.3015 last week, USD/CAD failed to sustain above double projection target of 1.2905/44 and retreated sharply. Initial support was seen at 1.1958/77 cluster support but the rebound from there was unconvincing and was limited by 1.2381 minor resistance, thus didn’t confirm that fall from 1.3015 has completed. Hence, initial outlook is neutral this week. On the upside, above 1.2381 will indicate that pull back from 1.3015 has completed and should bring retest of this high. On the downside, below 1.1900 will indicate that fall from 1.3015 has resumed towards 1.1304 support. Read the rest of this entry »

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1771; (P) 1.1875; (R1) 1.2011

USD/CAD’s rally resumes and is back pressing 1.2129 high in early US session. At this point, intraday bias remains on the upside as long as 1.1940 minor support holds. Break of 1.2129 will confirm that medium term up trend from 0.9056 has resumed. Next short term target will then be 200% projection of 0.9823 to 1.0819 from 1.0297 at 1.2289. On the downside, below 1.1940 will turn intraday outlook neutral first.

In the bigger picture, preferred interpretation of the up trend from 0.9056 is that first wave rally is completed at 1.0248. Subsequent second wave consolidation was in form of triangle and finished at 0.9823. Rise from there is treated as third wave rally and is still in the acceleration phase. In other words, USD/CAD is just in the middle of a long term up trend which should extend beyond 1.2737 resistance to 261.8% projection of 0.9056 to 1.0248 from 0.9823 at 1.2944. Also, while interim consolidation could be seen, downside should be contained above 1.0819 resistance turned support and bring up trend resumption. Break of 1.0819 is needed to invalidate this view.

USD/CAD’s pull back from 1.2129 was contained at 1.1304 and rebounded strongly to as high as 1.1995. From a short term angle, further rise is still expected as long as 1.1536 minor support holds. Retest of 1.2129 should be seen and break will confirm that recent up trend has resumed. However, below 1.1536 will firstly indicate that rise from 1.1304 has completed. Secondly, this will suggest that consolidation from 1.2129 is still in progress for another test of 1.1304 before completion. Nevertheless, downside should be contained well above 61.8% retracement 1.0297 to 1.2129 at 1.0997 and bring rally resumption.

In the bigger picture, preferred interpretation of the up trend from 0.9056 is that first wave rally is completed at 1.0248. Subsequent second wave consolidation was in form of triangle and finished at 0.9823. Rise from there is treated as third wave rally and is still in the acceleration phase. In other words, USD/CAD is just in the middle of a long term up trend which should extend beyond 1.2737 resistance to 261.8% projection of 0.9056 to 1.0248 from 0.9823 at 1.2944. Also, while interim consolidation could be seen, downside should be contained above 1.0819 resistance turned support and bring up trend resumption. Break of 1.0819 is needed to invalidate this view. Read the rest of this entry »

Before last week started, European leaders announced a rescue plan that includes state guarantees on bank debts until the end of 2009 with maturities up to five years. The governments are allowed to recapitalize financial institutions by buying bank stakes with preference shares or other instruments. ECB also pledged to look at enlarging access to the system of guarantees to include commercial paper even though it doesn’t have the legal power to do so yet. Germany later passed the bank rescue package which includes up to 400b euros in bank guarantees, 5% provision of losses and recapitalization funds up to 80b euros. France will create an entity to assist banks and guarantee limit will be up to 320b euros. Austria implemented a 100b euros rescue plan which provides support to the banking system mainly via guarantees while the government is also allowed to buy shares in Austrian banks.
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USD/CAD had an extremely impressive rally last week, surging sharply to as high as 1.2129 before retreating. 1.1874 key medium term resistance and long term fibonacci level of 38.2% retracement of 1.6196 to 0.9056 at 1.1783 were both taken out. From a short term angle, further rally is still expected as long as 1.1542 minor support holds. next upside target is 200% projection of 0.9823 to 1.0819 from 1.0297 at 1.2289. On the downside, touching of 1.1542 will indicate that a short term top is formed and bring consolidation before staging another rise. Read the rest of this entry »