EurUsd Market broke on the upside the November triangle consolidation pattern. It’s been trading as high as 1.3406 yesterday erasing the last 6-week trading range 1.2330 – 1.3298. This may open the way to 1.3500 target equal to 1.3302-1.2334 spread. On the further upside, only a return over 1.4000 (former trendline support) and 1.5000 will confirm release of the 3-month pressure and may put key resistance 1.6000 into focus. Resistance holds 1.4002 former trendline support. Initial resistance holds 1.3406 yesterday high. On the downside, renewed weakness below 1.2430 21st November low may open the way down to trendline support 1.2208. Next long-term support holds 1.1640 November 2005 low. Further support holds 1.0739 September 2003 low. Former resistance 1.3298 holds now initial support.
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Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1983; (P) 1.2014; (R1) 1.2062

USD/CHF’s rally is still in progress and climbs further to 1.2061 today so far. Intraday bias remains on the upside as long as 1.1965minor support holds. Current rise from 1.1208 is still expected to extend to next target of 100% projection of 1.0693 to 1.1746 from 1.1208 at 1.2261. On the downside, below 1.1965 will indicate that an intraday top is in place and bring retreat to 4 hours 55 EMA (now at 1.1875). Also, considering bearish divergence condition in 4 hours MACD, this will be an early alert that a short term top is formed and focus will then turn to 1.1549 support.

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Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1861; (P) 1.1926; (R1) 1.2013

USD/CHF edges higher to 1.2006 today and continues to press last week’s high of 1.2000. At this point, intraday bias remains on the upside as long as 1.1825 minor support holds and further rise is still expected to next target of 100% projection of 1.0693 to 1.1746 from 1.1208 at 1.2261. On the downside,below 1.1825 will flip intraday bias to the downside and argue that a short term top is possibly in place with bearish divergence condition in 4 hours MACD.

In the bigger picture, medium term rise from 0.9634 is still in progress and has taken out 1.1878 (61.8% retracement of 1.3283 to 0.9634 at 1.1889). Sustained trading above there will encourage further medium term rally to test 1.3283 high. On the downside, break of 1.1208 support is needed to indicate that such medium term rally has completed. Otherwise, medium term outlook will remain bullish even in case of deep pull back.

USD/CHF Mid-Day Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1709; (P) 1.1753; (R1) 1.1827

USD/CHF continues to stay in tight range below 1.1800 today without making any progress. While some more sideway trading might still be seen, further rally is still expected as long as 1.1546 support holds. Next target is 1.1878 cluster resistance. On the downside, however, below 1.1546 will indicate that a short term top is in place and put focus back to trend line support at 1.1173. Read the rest of this entry »

USD/CHF Weekly Outlook

USD/CHF pulled back sharply to as low as 1.1208 last week but rebounded equally strongly to as high as 1.1709 to close the week just mildly lower. The correction from 1.1746 should have completed and initial bias will be on the upside this week as long as 1.1471 minor support holds. Retest of 1.1746 high should be seen. Break will confirm that medium term up trend has resumed for next target of 1.1878 cluster resistance. On the downside, below 1.1471 will turn intraday outlook neutral again.

In the bigger picture, while a short term top is in place, there is no confirmation of a medium term reversal yet as long as the mentioned rising trend line support (1.0010, 1.0693, now at 1.1090) holds. Medium term rise from 0.9634 is still expected to extend further to 1.1878 (61.8% retracement of 1.3283 to 0.9634 at 1.1889) after completing the current correction. However, sustained break of the trend line support will argue that the medium term rise might have finished and will turn focus back to 1.0693 support. Read the rest of this entry »

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1231; (P) 1.1355; (R1) 1.1514

USD/CHF’s rebound extends further to as high as 1.1604 in early US session. As discussed before, correction from 1.1746 could have completed at 1.1208 already. At this point, intraday bias remains on the upside as long as 1.1471 minor support holds. Retest of 1.1746 high should be seen and break will confirm that medium term up trend has resumed for next target of 1.1878 cluster resistance. On the downside, below 1.1471 will turn intraday outlook neutral again.

In the bigger picture, while a short term top is in place, there is no confirmation of a medium term reversal yet as long as the mentioned rising trend line support (1.0010, 1.0693, now at 1.1089) holds. Medium term rise from 0.9634 is still expected to extend further to 1.1878 (61.8% retracement of 1.3283 to 0.9634 at 1.1889) after completing the current correction. However, sustained break of the trend line support will argue that the medium term rise might have finished and will turn focus back to 1.0693 support.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1308; (P) 1.1351; (R1) 1.1410

USD/CHF’s break of 1.1486 high indicates that recent up trend has likely resumed. At this point, further rise is expected as long as 1.1321 minor support holds. Further rally should be seen to next upside target of 1.1596 medium term resistance. On the downside, though, below 1.1321 will argue that USD/CHF is still bounded in consolidation and should test 1.1126 support again before resuming recent up trend.

In the bigger picture, medium term rally from 0.9634 is still in progress and is targeting next two cluster resistance, 1.1596 (161.8% projection of 0.9634 to 1.0623 from 1.0010 at 1.1610) and 1.1878 (61.8% retracement of 1.3283 to 0.9634 at 1.1889). On the downside, below 1.0944 is needed to be the first signal that such up trend has topped out. Otherwise, medium term outlook remains bullish even in case of another pull back.

USD/CHF was bounded inside established range of 1.1486 and 1.1126 last week. Consolidation is still in progress and another fall to retest 1.1126 cannot be ruled out. Though, downside should be contained well above 1.0944 support and bring rally resumption. Firm break of 1.1486 high will confirm that rise from 1.0693 has resumed for next upside target of 1.1596 medium term resistance

In the bigger picture, medium term rally from 0.9634 is still in progress and is targeting next two cluster resistance, 1.1596 (161.8% projection of 0.9634 to 1.0623 from 1.0010 at 1.1610) and 1.1878 (61.8% retracement of 1.3283 to 0.9634 at 1.1889). On the downside, below 1.0944 is needed to be the first signal that such up trend has topped out. Otherwise, medium term outlook remains bullish even in case of another pull back. Read the rest of this entry »

Before last week started, European leaders announced a rescue plan that includes state guarantees on bank debts until the end of 2009 with maturities up to five years. The governments are allowed to recapitalize financial institutions by buying bank stakes with preference shares or other instruments. ECB also pledged to look at enlarging access to the system of guarantees to include commercial paper even though it doesn’t have the legal power to do so yet. Germany later passed the bank rescue package which includes up to 400b euros in bank guarantees, 5% provision of losses and recapitalization funds up to 80b euros. France will create an entity to assist banks and guarantee limit will be up to 320b euros. Austria implemented a 100b euros rescue plan which provides support to the banking system mainly via guarantees while the government is also allowed to buy shares in Austrian banks.
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