EurUsd Market broke on the upside the November triangle consolidation pattern. It’s been trading as high as 1.3406 yesterday erasing the last 6-week trading range 1.2330 – 1.3298. This may open the way to 1.3500 target equal to 1.3302-1.2334 spread. On the further upside, only a return over 1.4000 (former trendline support) and 1.5000 will confirm release of the 3-month pressure and may put key resistance 1.6000 into focus. Resistance holds 1.4002 former trendline support. Initial resistance holds 1.3406 yesterday high. On the downside, renewed weakness below 1.2430 21st November low may open the way down to trendline support 1.2208. Next long-term support holds 1.1640 November 2005 low. Further support holds 1.0739 September 2003 low. Former resistance 1.3298 holds now initial support.
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Daily Pivots: (S1) 91.70; (P) 92.58; (R1) 93.09
USD/JPY dips further to 92.06 and at this point, intraday bias remains on the downside as long as 93.46 minor resistance holds. The fall from 100.54 is still expected to extend further to retest 90.92 low. However, note that the lack of impulsive structure of the fall from 100.54 so far is still arguing that it might be part of the consolidation that started at 90.92. Hence, sustained break of 90.92 is needed to confirm medium term down trend has resumed. On the upside, above 93.46 will turn intraday outlook neutral first. Further break of 95.74 resistance will indicate that fall from 100.54 has possibly completed. The corrective structure in turn suggests that consolidation from 90.92 is still in progress and stronger rally should be seen to retest 100.54 before completion.
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Daily Pivots: (S1) 92.30; (P) 93.94; (R1) 94.82
USD/JPY recovers mildly after hitting 92.64 earlier today. Though, at this point, intraday bias remains on the downside as long as 94.25 minor resistance holds. Decline from 100.54 could extend further to retest 90.92 low. On the upside, above 94.25 will turn intraday outlook neutral first. Also, note that the lack of impulsive structure of the fall from 100.54 so far is still arguing that it might be part of the consolidation that started at 90.92. Above 95.74 will indicate that fall from 100.54 has possibly completed. The corrective structure in turn suggests that rebound from 90.92 is still in progress and stronger rally should be seen to 100.54 or above before completion. Read the rest of this entry »
Daily Pivots: (S1) 95.19; (P) 96.17; (R1) 96.68
USD/JPY’s break of the intraday trend line support with 4 hours MACD dragged down signal line argues that fall from 100.54 might be resuming. Intraday bias is now mildly on the downside and near term focus is turned to 94.47 minor support. Break will confirm this scenario and bring deeper fall to retest 90.92 low first. On the other hand, above 97.13 minor resistance will revive the case that rebound from 90.92 is still in progress for 100.54 or above before completion.
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USD/JPY spiraled lower to 93.55 last week but downside momentum was rather unconvincing. So far, the structure of the fall from 100.54 to 93.55 is still looking corrective, arguing that rebound from 90.92 is not over. Anyway, with 4 hours MACD crossed above signal line, initial outlook is neutral this week. Break of 98.18 will favor the case that rise 90.92 is still in progress and another rally could be seen to 100.54 or above before completion. On the downside, though, below 93.55 will indicate that fall from 100.54 is still in progress and will continue to target 90.92 low. Read the rest of this entry »
Daily Pivots: (S1) 95.19; (P) 96.17; (R1) 96.68
USD/JPY’s break of the intraday trend line support with 4 hours MACD dragged down signal line argues that fall from 100.54 might be resuming. Intraday bias is now mildly on the downside and near term focus is turned to 94.47 minor support. Break will confirm this scenario and bring deeper fall to retest 90.92 low first. On the other hand, above 97.13 minor resistance will revive the case that rebound from 90.92 is still in progress for 100.54 or above before completion.
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Daily Pivots: (S1) 97.26; (P) 97.96; (R1) 98.44
USD/JPY recovers mildly but after all it’s still staying in tight range of 96.35 and 100.54. Outlook remains neutral for the moment. As discussed before, rebound from 90.92 could have completed at 100.54 already. Break of 96.35 minor support will confirm and bring deeper decline to retest 90.92 low. On the upside, above however, 100.54 will indicate that such rise from 90.92 is still in progress for 103.06 cluster resistance (61.8% retracement of 110.66 to 90.92 at 103.12).
In the bigger picture, stronger than expected rebound from 90.92 mixed up the near term picture. Nevertheless, as long as 103.06 cluster resistance holds, medium term outlook remains bearish. Prior break of 95.77 low confirms that whole down trend from 124.13 has resumed and should target 100% projection of 124.13 to 95.77 from 110.66 at 82.3 next. Also, note that the current development clears out the long term picture too. Price actions that started from 79.75 (95 low) has completed in form of a triangle that needed with five waves to 124.13. In other words fall from 124.13 is just part of an even larger scale down trend which could extend further to retest 79.75 low.
On the upside, sustained break of 103.06 cluster resistance will firstly argue that fall from 110.66 has completed. Secondly, it will also argue that a medium term low is in place at 90.92 and outlook will be turned neutral with focus back to 110.66 high.
USD/JPY Weekly Outlook
USD/JPY rebounded strongly to as high as 99.68 last week but stalled there and turned into sideway trading. Intraday bias was turned neutral but there was no confirmation of completion of such rise yet. Above 99.12 will bring further rebound to above 99.68 resistance, with focus on 103.06 cluster resistance (61.8% retracement of 110.66 to 90.92 at 103.12). On the downside, break of 94.23 support will confirm that rebound from 90.92 has completed and will bring retest of this low first. Read the rest of this entry »
Daily Pivots: (S1) 100.89; (P) 101.35; (R1) 102.10
USD/JPY’s rise from 99.27 extends further today and reaches as high as 102.41 so far. But after all, price actions from 97.92 is still treated as consolidation in the whole fall from 110.66. As long as 103.49/54 resistance holds, such decline from 110.66 should still be in progress. Below 99.27 will bring retest of 97.91 low and break confirm recent decline has resumed for retesting 95.77 low. However, sustained break of 103.54 will argue that fall from 110.66 has completed and focus will turn to 106.14 resistance for confirmation.
In the bigger picture, medium term rise from 95.77 has completed at 110.66 with bearish divergence condition in daily MACD. Also, the three wave structure of such rise argues that it’s just correction, or part of the consolidation to the down trend from 124.13. Hence, deeper fall is now expected to retest 95.77 low. Break will confirm that whole down trend from 124.13 has resumed and should target 61.8% projection of 124.13 to 95.77 from 110.66 at 93.13 first. On the upside, above 106.14 resistance will indicate that fall from 110.66 has completed. This will suggest that medium term consolidation from 95.77 is probably still in progress. In such case, another test of 110.66 could be seen before resuming the down trend from 124.13.
