Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3274; (P) 1.3345; (R1) 1.3438

EUR/USD’s rise continues in early US session and reaches as high as 1.3585 so far, taking out mentioned 100% projection of 1.2329 to 1.3290 from 1.2549 at 1.3510. At this point, intraday bias remains on the upside as long as 1.3430 minor support holds. Focus now turns to 1.3768 cluster resistance. On the downside, below 1.3430 minor support will turn intraday outlook neutral first. But another rise is still in favor as long as 1.3250 support holds. Read the rest of this entry »

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2555; (P) 1.2628; (R1) 1.2689

EUR/USD’s strong rally in early US session suggests that rebound from 1.2389 is resuming. At this point, intraday bias is mildly on the upside as long as 1.2585 minor support holds. Further rise is in favor to 1.3290 high and 100% projection of 1.2329 to 1.3290 from 1.2389 at 1.3350 to complete the consolidation from 1.2329. Nevertheless, upside is expected be limited below 1.3768 cluster resistance and bring down trend resumption. On the downside, below 1.2585 will flip intraday bias back to the downside and break of 1.2389 will be an important indication that consolidation from 1.2329 has completed and recent down trend has resumed for next target of 50% retracement of 0.8223 to 1.6038 at 1.2131

Read the rest of this entry »

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2488; (P) 1.2672; (R1) 1.2955

EUR/USD’s strong rebound from 1.2389 indicates that an intraday low is in place and more importantly, it invalidated the triangle breakout scenario and suggests that consolidation from 1.2329 is still in progress. Intraday bias is flipped back to the upside and further rebound could be seen towards 1.3290 high. Though, there is no change in the broader view that price actions from 1.2329 is merely consolidation in the larger down trend. Upside of the current rise from 1.2389 is still expected to be limited below 1.3768 cluster resistance and bring down trend resumption. On the downside, below 1.2591 will turn intraday outlook neutral again. Further break of 1.2389 will be an important indication that recent down trend has resumed for next target of 50% retracement of 0.8223 to 1.6038 at 1.2131

Read the rest of this entry »

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2655; (P) 1.2851; (R1) 1.3177

EUR/USD’s rise from 1.2525 extends further to 1.3114 after mild retreat today. At this point, intraday bias remains on the upside as long as 1.2797 minor support holds. As discussed before, the corrective structure of the fall from 1.3290 to 1.2525 suggests that rebound from 1.2329 is resuming and further upside is in favor to retest 1.3290 high first. On the downside, though, below 1.2525 will flip intraday bias back to the downside for retesting 1.2329 low.

As discussed before, there is no doubt that a short term bottom is in place at 1.2329. With EUR/USD just missed 38.2% retracement of 1.4867 to 1.2329 at 1.3299, it’s believed that fall from 1.4867 has completed too and EUR/USD is developing into choppy sideway consolidation in the larger down trend from 1.6038. Note that the path and length of the current consolidation could be quite unpredictable. Nevertheless, firstly, intraday upside momentum should start to diminish again in 1.3258/3768 resistance zone even in case of another rise. Secondly, as long as 1.2329 low holds, such consolidation could extend further. A break out on either side is needed to confirm that the consolidation has completed.

In the bigger picture, as discussed before, the strength of the fall from 1.6038 reinforces the case that whole decline from 1.6038 is developing into a five wave impulsive fall. The completed decline from 1.4867 to 1.2329 might represent the third wave decline in the five wave sequence. Consolidation from 1.2329 might represent the fourth wave consolidation. Hence, another decline is still expected before making a medium term bottom. Below 1.2329 will target next long term fibonacci level of 50% retracement of 0.8223 to 1.6038 at 1.2131 or even further to 1.1639 key medium term support. On the upside, sustained break of 1.3768 cluster resistance (38.2% retracement of 1.6038 to 1.2329 at 1.3746) is needed to invalidate this view and indicate that whole decline from 1.6038 has made a medium term bottom.

EUR/USD Weekly Outlook

EUR/USD’s down trend resumed last week and fell sharply to as low as 1.2496. Friday’s recovery after drawing support from the short term fall channel, with 4 hours MACD crossed above signal line, argues that a short term bottom might be in place. Though, break of 1.2754 minor resistance is needed to confirm. Otherwise, intraday bias remains on the downside and further fall should be seen to 100% projection of 1.4867 to 1.3258 from 1.3768 at 1.2159 next. Break of 1.2754 will bring stronger recovery to 1.3004 resistance or above. But upside should be limited by 1.3258 resistance and bring down trend resumption.

In the bigger picture, some key important long term support levels were taken out last week without much hesitation. The strength of the fall as well as the breaking of 100% projection of 1.6038 to 1.3381 from 1.4867 at 1.2710 reinforces that case that whole decline from 1.6038 is developing into a five wave impulsive fall. As mentioned before, if this is true, EUR/USD is probably still in the middle of it and should eventually extend to below 1.1639 key long term support before making a medium term bottom. Break of 1.3768 resistance is needed to invalidate this view and indicates that a medium term bottom is formed earlier than we thought. Otherwise, medium term outlook will remain bearish even in case of strong rebound. Read the rest of this entry »

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3461; (P) 1.3571; (R1) 1.3687

EUR/USD’s recovery extends further to 1.3768 but still lacks
decisive momentum to take out 1.3785 resistance. There is still no
confirmation of a short term bottom yet. Further decline is still in
favor as long as 1.3785 resistance holds. Below 1.3484 minor support
will flip intraday bias back to the downside for 1.3258 low first.
Break will confirm recent down trend has resumed for long term
fibonacci level at 1.3053. On the upside, though, above 1.3785 will
indicate that a short term bottom at least formed and bring stronger
rebound.

In the bigger picture, note that EUR/USD is now sitting in an
important long term support zone with a) 38.2% retracement of 0.8223
(00 low) to 1.6038 at 1.3053, 55 Months EMA at 1.3361 and the
development in the new few weeks will be important to the long term
outlook. Firstly, fall from 1.4687 as well as that from 1.6038 is still
in progress as long as 1.3785 resistance holds. Sustained trading below
mentioned 1.3053 fibo resistance and 55 months EMA will affirm that
medium downside momentum is still strong in EUR/USD. Further break of
100% projection of 1.6038 to 1.3381 from 1.4867 at 1.2710 will add more
credence to the case that whole down trend from 1.6038 is developing
into a five wave impulsive decline. In other words, EUR/USD is probably
just in the middle of such fall which should extend beyond 1.1639 low
before forming a medium term bottom.

On the upside, however, above 1.3785 will firstly indicate that a
short term bottom is in place. Secondly, this will argue that EUR/USD
is drawing some support from mentioned support zone to form a medium
term bottom. Stronger rebound should be seen in this case with focus
turned back to 1.4867 resistance Break will confirm that a medium term
bottom is in place. Also, this will leave the decline from 1.6038 in
three wave structure which suggests that the price actions from 1.6038
are developing into something that’s corrective in nature. In other
words, fall from 1.6038 is probably just a correction from the long
term angle and will likely be contained above 1.1639 low even if
decline resumes.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.4300; (P) 1.4435; (R1) 1.4567
EUR/USD’s fall from 1.4867 resumes by taking out 1.4302 low and reaches as low as 1.4150 so far. Break of 1.4512 support confirms that rebound from 1.3881 has completed at 1.4867, below 1.4908 resistance as expected. At this point, intraday bias remains on the downside as long as 1.4429 minor resistance holds. Further decline is expected to be seen to retest 1.3881 low and 1.3851 key medium term support. On the upside, above 1.4429 will turn intraday outlook neutral first but another fall is still expected after recovery.

Read the rest of this entry »

EUR USD

The Euro advanced lower versus the US dollar, breaking long term support at 1.4365 formed by January’s low. Trading below 1.4300 and 1.4365 indicates a selloff signal towards fresh downtrend lows into the 1.4100 region. The downside remains under pressure and the Euro will most likely maintain a heavy tone while current resistance at 1.4365 stays intact. Intraday studies are bullish due to the minor pullback which is underway. Large moves are expected today across the board due to the NFP release in the US. Current quote is 1.4292 @06:30 GMT

Support levels: 1.4260, 1.4215, 1.4150 and 1.4100.
Resistance levels: 1.4300/10, 1.4365, 1.4390 and 1.4435.
Market sentiment: long-term : bullish, mid-term : bearish, short-term : bearish
AUD USD
Support is now formed at .8130 backed by .8100 while resistance starts at .8200 followed by .8235, .8300 and .8400. Both daily and intraday studies are bearish and the support into the .8100-.8130 zone remains on focus while the Aussie dollar trades below .8235. A potential break on the upside should extend towards the .8300 mark but rallies are expected to be sold fast. Current quote is .8176 @06:30 GMT

Support levels: .8130, .8100 and .8050.
Resistance levels: .8200, .8235 and .8300.
Market sentiment: long-term : bullish, mid-term : bearish , short-term : bearish
EUR CHF
Intraday resistance is formed at 1.5950 followed by the recent support zone at 1.5970/85 which has been breached on yesterday and should provide a barrier on the upside for now. Support is seen at 1.5850 backed by 1.5810/15. The short term studies are bearish while the intraday ones are slightly bullish. Current quote is 1.5885 @06:30 GMT
Support levels: 1.5850, 1.5810/15 and 1.5750.
Resistance levels: 1.5900, 1.5950 and 1.5970/85.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.4648; (P) 1.4712; (R1) 1.4791;

EUR/USD’s recovery from 1.4571 continues today and is now pressing 1.4807 resistance. At this point, intraday outlook remains neutral. Though, as discussed before, with bullish convergence condition in 4 hours MACD and RSI, break of 1.4807 will be an important signal that a short term bottom is finally in place. Further break of 1.4908 will confirm and bring stronger rebound to test 1.5284 double top neckline resistance before staging another fall. On the downside, though, below 1.4571 will indicate that recent fall is still in progress to key medium term support at 1.4309.

In the bigger picture, the double top reversal pattern (1.6019, 1.6038) serves as an important signal of completion of medium term rise from 1.1639 (05 low), which is supported by the decisive break of 55 weeks EMA While it’s still early to conclude, recent development continues to build up the case of a medium term reversal. Focus will now be on a) whether key support level of 1.4309, (38.2% retracement of 1.1639 (05 low) to 1.6038 at 1.4358, 61.8% retracement of 1.3262 to 1.6038 at 1.4322) will hold; b) whether next trend line support (1.1825, 1.2483, now at 1.4359) will hold; c) whether weekly MACD will turn negative and d) whether monthly MACD will cross below signal line.