Gold continues to stay in established range without any direction. Consolidation from 684.60 is still in progress and is probably in form of a contracting triangle. Having said that, further upside cannot be ruled out as long as 698.2 minor support holds but we’d still expect such consolidation to be limited below 824.5 support turned resistance and bring down trend resumption. On the downside, below 698.2 will be an early alert that such consolidation has completed. It will flip intraday bias back to the downside for retesting 684.6 low first. Break will confirm recent down trend has resumed.
In the bigger picture, correction from 1033.9 is still in force and should be targeting next key support zone of 100% projection of 1033.9 to 739.8 from 936.3 at 642.2 and 61.8% retracement of 371.3 to 1033.9 at 624.41. On the upside, while some rebound might be seen, break of 936.3 is needed to confirm that fall from 1033.9 has completed. Otherwise, medium term outlook will remain bearish.
Comex Gold Continuous Contract 4 Hours Chart
Comex Gold Continuous Contract Daily Chart
BY OilNGold
GBP/JPY’s fall from 165.02 continues today and reaches as low as 147.63 so far. At this point, intraday bias remains on the downside as long as 154.23 minor resistance holds. Further decline is expected to retest 139.02 low first. Break will confirm that recent down trend has resumed. On the upside, above 154.23 will turn intraday outlook neutral. Further break of 157.63 will indicate that consolidation from 139.02 is still in progress and could retest 165.97 resistance before completion. Read the rest of this entry »
Daily Pivots: (S1) 99.13; (P) 100.68; (R1) 101.50
USD/JPY recovers strongly after fall from 103.06 was contained at 99.27. Though, further decline is still mildly in favor as long as 101.73 minor resistance holds, targeting 97.91 first. Break will confirm recent decline has resumed for retesting 95.77 low. On the upside, above 101.73 will argue that consolidation from 97.91 is still in progress for and another test of 103.06 could be seen. Nevertheless, focus remains on 103.49/54 resistance. As long as this resistance zone holds, the fall from 110.66 should still be in progress. However, sustained break of 103.54 will argue that fall from 110.66 has completed and focus will turn to 106.14 resistance for confirmation.
In the bigger picture, medium term rise from 95.77 has completed at 110.66 with bearish divergence condition in daily MACD. Also, the three wave structure of such rise argues that it’s just correction, or part of the consolidation to the down trend from 124.13. Hence, deeper fall is now expected to retest 95.77 low. Break will confirm that whole down trend from 124.13 has resumed and should target 61.8% projection of 124.13 to 95.77 from 110.66 at 93.13 first. On the upside, above 106.14 resistance will indicate that fall from 110.66 has completed. This will suggest that medium term consolidation from 95.77 is still in progress. In such case, another test of 110.66 could be seen before resuming the down trend from 124.13.
Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3461; (P) 1.3571; (R1) 1.3687
EUR/USD’s recovery extends further to 1.3768 but still lacks
decisive momentum to take out 1.3785 resistance. There is still no
confirmation of a short term bottom yet. Further decline is still in
favor as long as 1.3785 resistance holds. Below 1.3484 minor support
will flip intraday bias back to the downside for 1.3258 low first.
Break will confirm recent down trend has resumed for long term
fibonacci level at 1.3053. On the upside, though, above 1.3785 will
indicate that a short term bottom at least formed and bring stronger
rebound.
In the bigger picture, note that EUR/USD is now sitting in an
important long term support zone with a) 38.2% retracement of 0.8223
(00 low) to 1.6038 at 1.3053, 55 Months EMA at 1.3361 and the
development in the new few weeks will be important to the long term
outlook. Firstly, fall from 1.4687 as well as that from 1.6038 is still
in progress as long as 1.3785 resistance holds. Sustained trading below
mentioned 1.3053 fibo resistance and 55 months EMA will affirm that
medium downside momentum is still strong in EUR/USD. Further break of
100% projection of 1.6038 to 1.3381 from 1.4867 at 1.2710 will add more
credence to the case that whole down trend from 1.6038 is developing
into a five wave impulsive decline. In other words, EUR/USD is probably
just in the middle of such fall which should extend beyond 1.1639 low
before forming a medium term bottom.
On the upside, however, above 1.3785 will firstly indicate that a
short term bottom is in place. Secondly, this will argue that EUR/USD
is drawing some support from mentioned support zone to form a medium
term bottom. Stronger rebound should be seen in this case with focus
turned back to 1.4867 resistance Break will confirm that a medium term
bottom is in place. Also, this will leave the decline from 1.6038 in
three wave structure which suggests that the price actions from 1.6038
are developing into something that’s corrective in nature. In other
words, fall from 1.6038 is probably just a correction from the long
term angle and will likely be contained above 1.1639 low even if
decline resumes.
Last week’s fall from 1.1486 to 1.1126 was deeper than we expected. Nevertheless, Friday’s rally and break of 1.1341 confirmed that it’s completed. More importantly, this leaves such decline in three wave corrective structure and thus reaffirm that it’s just a correction to rise from 1.0693. In other words, the short term bullish outlook remains intact. Further rally should be seen this week to retest 1.1486 resistance first. Break will confirm that recent up trend has resumed for next target of 1.1596 cluster resistance. On the downside, though, below 1.1261 minor support will indicate that up trend is not ready to resume yet and more correction should be see to retest 1.1126 low before completion. Read the rest of this entry »
Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.8450; (P) 1.8542; (R1) 1.8612
No change in GBP/USD’s outlook as the pair continues to stay in tight range. An intraday top is in place with 4 hours MACD staying below signal line. Considering that rebound from 1.7445 has met upside target of 1.8512/8794 resistance zone already, rebound from 1.7445 might be near to completion. Below 1.8263 will turn intraday bias back to the downside first. Break of 1.7916 will confirm rebound from 1.7445 has finished and bring retest of this low and long term fibonacci level of 50% retracement of 1.3680 to 2.1161 at 1.7421.
In the bigger picture, while there rebound from 1.7445 might be strong, there is no change in the medium term outlook yet. Fall from 2.1161 (07 high) is expected to developing into a five wave decline before making a medium term bottom. In other words, such fall is still in progress and should extend further lower after completing the current corrective rise. Break of 1.7421/45 support zone will confirm that this fall has resumed for next target of 61.8% retracement of 1.3680 to 2.1161 at 1.6538 first. Break of 1.9337 support turned resistance is needed to invalidate this view.
Action Insight Mid-Day Report
Carry trades finally make a massive come back on another as stock markets soars for another day. DOW opens sharply higher and reaches as high gain more than 400 pts following announcement of US Government’s market rescue plan and banning of short selling of nearly 800 financial stocks. Yen crosses finally get out of hesitation and surged sharply across the board, confirming a short term reversal. While the greenback maintains strength in USD/JPY, it gives back earlier gains against other majors currencies as Euro, Sterling, Aussie and Canadian dollar are boosted in yen crosses.
Read the rest of this entry »
Daily Pivots: (S1) 108.28; (P) 108.93; (R1) 109.43
USD/JPY’s break of 108.13 support indicates that a short term head and shoulder top reversal pattern is completed (ls: 110.40, h: 110.66; rs: 110.27) At this point, further decline is expected to test the medium term trend line support (now at 106.76). As discussed before, considering bearish divergence in daily MACD, such reversal pattern argues that whole rise from 95.77 has completed too. Decisive break of the trend line support will add more credence to this case and bring deeper fall to 103.76 first. On the upside, break of 108.87 resistance will dampen this view and turn outlook mixed first.
In the bigger picture, momentum of the medium term rise from 95.77 is seen diminishing with bearish divergence condition in daily MACD. Though, such rise could still be in progress as long as the trend line (95.77 to 103.76) remains intact. Further rally could be seen to 61.8% projection of 95.77 to 108.58 from 103.76 at 111.68 first. Break will bring further rise to 61.8% retracement of 124.13 to 95.77 at 113.30.
Sustained break of the trendline support will indicate that rise from 95.77 has made a top. Deeper fall should the be seen to 103.76 support first. Break of 103.76 will firstly confirm that rise from 95.77 has completed and turn medium term outlook bearish. Secondly. the lack of impulsive structure of the rise from 95.77 argues that it’s merely a correction in the larger down trend. In other words, deep decline to retest of 95.77 level could be seen in this case.
Daily Pivots: (S1) 108.93; (P) 109.33; (R1) 109.87;
USD/JPY continues to be bounded in choppy sideway trading below 109.92 today. Outlook remains neutral for the moment. Correction from 110.66 might still be in progress and break of 108.70 minor support will put favor to this case and bring deeper fall to 108.13 and below. Also, note, though still early, the possibility of a short term head and shoulder top (110.4 110.66, 110.27). Break of 108.13 will indicate recent up trend has possibly reversed and and much deeper decline should the be seen to test medium term rising trendline support (now at 106.69). On the upside, break of 109.92 minor resistance will indicate that rise from 108.13 has likely resumed for 110.66. Break will confirm that recent rally has resumed for next target of 61.8% projection of 95.77 to 108.58 from 103.76 at 111.68.
In the bigger picture, USD/JPY has made a medium term bottom after down trend from 124.13 has just met 76.4% retracement of 79.75 to 147.68 at 95.78. Rebound from 95.77 is still in progress and should be targeting 61.8% projection of 95.77 to 108.58 from 103.76 at 111.68 first. Break will bring further rise to 61.8% retracement of 124.13 to 95.77 at 113.30.
However, considering bearish divergence condition in daily MACD, break of 106.04 support and sustained trading below the trend line support (99.57, 103.75, now at 106.69) will argue that whole medium term rebound from 95.77 has completed. Focus will then be turned back to 103.76 support and break will confirm this case and turn outlook bearish again.
USD/JPY’s outlook remains neutral for the moment. Consolidation from 110.66 may still be in progress and below 109.01 will encourage deeper fall to retest 108.13 low. Though, downside is expected to be contained well above 106.04 support and bring rally resumption. On the upside, however, above 110.27 will revive original case that correction from 110.66 has completed and bring retest of this high. Break will confirm that recent rally has resumed for next target of 61.8% projection of 95.77 to 108.58 from 103.76 at 111.68.
In the bigger picture, USD/JPY has made a medium term bottom after down trend from 124.13 has just met 76.4% retracement of 79.75 to 147.68 at 95.78. Rebound from 95.77 is still in progress and should be targeting 61.8% projection of 95.77 to 108.58 from 103.76 at 111.68 first. Break will bring further rise to 61.8% retracement of 124.13 to 95.77 at 113.30.
However, considering bearish divergence condition in daily MACD, break of 106.04 support and sustained trading below the trend line support (99.57, 103.75, now at 106.21) will argue that whole medium term rebound from 95.77 has completed. Focus will then be turned back to 103.76 support and bring will confirm this case and turn outlook bearish again.
