Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2695; (P) 1.2824; (R1) 1.3084
EUR/USD surges further to as high as 1.3080 in early US session and at this point, intraday bias remains on the upside as long as 1.2803 minor support holds. As discussed before, rise from 1.2423 should represent another rising leg of the consolidation that started at 1.2329 and further rally could be seen to 1.3290 or above. Though, upside is still expected to be limited below 1.3768 cluster resistance and bring down trend resumption. On the downside, below will turn intraday outlook neutral first. Further break of 1.2423 will indicate that such consolidation has likely completed and recent down trend is resuming for 50% retracement of 0.8223 to 1.6038 at 1.2131 next. Read the rest of this entry »
Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2555; (P) 1.2628; (R1) 1.2689
EUR/USD’s strong rally in early US session suggests that rebound from 1.2389 is resuming. At this point, intraday bias is mildly on the upside as long as 1.2585 minor support holds. Further rise is in favor to 1.3290 high and 100% projection of 1.2329 to 1.3290 from 1.2389 at 1.3350 to complete the consolidation from 1.2329. Nevertheless, upside is expected be limited below 1.3768 cluster resistance and bring down trend resumption. On the downside, below 1.2585 will flip intraday bias back to the downside and break of 1.2389 will be an important indication that consolidation from 1.2329 has completed and recent down trend has resumed for next target of 50% retracement of 0.8223 to 1.6038 at 1.2131
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Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2488; (P) 1.2672; (R1) 1.2955
EUR/USD’s strong rebound from 1.2389 indicates that an intraday low is in place and more importantly, it invalidated the triangle breakout scenario and suggests that consolidation from 1.2329 is still in progress. Intraday bias is flipped back to the upside and further rebound could be seen towards 1.3290 high. Though, there is no change in the broader view that price actions from 1.2329 is merely consolidation in the larger down trend. Upside of the current rise from 1.2389 is still expected to be limited below 1.3768 cluster resistance and bring down trend resumption. On the downside, below 1.2591 will turn intraday outlook neutral again. Further break of 1.2389 will be an important indication that recent down trend has resumed for next target of 50% retracement of 0.8223 to 1.6038 at 1.2131
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Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2106; (P) 1.2246; (R1) 1.2511
USD/CAD’s rise from 1.1464 extends further to as high as 1.2418 before turning sideway. At this point, intraday bias remains on the upside as long as 1.2150 minor support holds. As discussed before, correction from 1.3015 has completed at 1.3015 has completed, ahead of 50% retracement of 0.9823 to 1.3015 at 1.1419. Further rise is expected to retest this 1.3015 high. On the downside, below 1.2150 will turn intraday outlook neutral first. Though, another rally is still in favor as long as pull back is contained above 1.1658 support.
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Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1733; (P) 1.1862; (R1) 1.2069
USD/CAD’s rise lost steam ahead of 1.2022 resistance and retreats mildly. Intraday outlook remains neutral for the moment. As discussed before, break of 1.2022 resistance will indicate rise from 1.1464 has resumed. More importantly, this will reaffirm the case that correction from 1.3015 has completed with three waves down to 1.1464, slightly above 50% retracement of 0.9823 to 1.3015 at 1.1419. In such case, strong rally should be seen to retest 1.3015 high. On the downside, though, below 1.1464 will indicate that fall from 1.3015 has resumed. Read the rest of this entry »
EUR/USD continued to engage in choppy sideway consolidation between 1.2329 and 1.3290 last week. As discussed before, with EUR/USD just missed 38.2% retracement of 1.4867 to 1.2329 at 1.3299, it’s believed that fall from 1.4867 has completed. Consolidation from 1.2329 is still in progress and is probably developing into triangle pattern. Nevertheless, in any case, firstly, as long as 1.2329 low holds, such consolidation could extend further. Secondly, in case of another rise, upside should be limited below 1.3768 cluster resistance. And more importantly, the path of the consolidation will remain unpredictable. Read the rest of this entry »
Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2655; (P) 1.2851; (R1) 1.3177
EUR/USD’s rise from 1.2525 extends further to 1.3114 after mild retreat today. At this point, intraday bias remains on the upside as long as 1.2797 minor support holds. As discussed before, the corrective structure of the fall from 1.3290 to 1.2525 suggests that rebound from 1.2329 is resuming and further upside is in favor to retest 1.3290 high first. On the downside, though, below 1.2525 will flip intraday bias back to the downside for retesting 1.2329 low.
As discussed before, there is no doubt that a short term bottom is in place at 1.2329. With EUR/USD just missed 38.2% retracement of 1.4867 to 1.2329 at 1.3299, it’s believed that fall from 1.4867 has completed too and EUR/USD is developing into choppy sideway consolidation in the larger down trend from 1.6038. Note that the path and length of the current consolidation could be quite unpredictable. Nevertheless, firstly, intraday upside momentum should start to diminish again in 1.3258/3768 resistance zone even in case of another rise. Secondly, as long as 1.2329 low holds, such consolidation could extend further. A break out on either side is needed to confirm that the consolidation has completed.
In the bigger picture, as discussed before, the strength of the fall from 1.6038 reinforces the case that whole decline from 1.6038 is developing into a five wave impulsive fall. The completed decline from 1.4867 to 1.2329 might represent the third wave decline in the five wave sequence. Consolidation from 1.2329 might represent the fourth wave consolidation. Hence, another decline is still expected before making a medium term bottom. Below 1.2329 will target next long term fibonacci level of 50% retracement of 0.8223 to 1.6038 at 1.2131 or even further to 1.1639 key medium term support. On the upside, sustained break of 1.3768 cluster resistance (38.2% retracement of 1.6038 to 1.2329 at 1.3746) is needed to invalidate this view and indicate that whole decline from 1.6038 has made a medium term bottom.
Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1693; (P) 1.1905; (R1) 1.2017
USD/CAD’s correction from 1.3015 resumes by taking out 1.1900 low and reaches as low as 1.1630 in early US session. At this point, intraday bias remains on the downside a long as 1.1892 minor resistance holds. Further decline is still expected. Nevertheless, downside of this correction is expected to be contained by 1.1260/1419 support zone (50% retracement of 0.9823 to 1.3015 at 1.1419 and 100% projection of 1.3015 to 1.1900 from 1.2375 at 1.1260 as well as 1.1304 support) and bring up trend resumption. On the upside, above 1.1892 will turn intraday outlook neutral first. Further break of 1.2375 will indicate that fall from 1.3015 has completed and will then bring retest of this high. Read the rest of this entry »
Despite edging higher to 1.3015 last week, USD/CAD failed to sustain above double projection target of 1.2905/44 and retreated sharply. Initial support was seen at 1.1958/77 cluster support but the rebound from there was unconvincing and was limited by 1.2381 minor resistance, thus didn’t confirm that fall from 1.3015 has completed. Hence, initial outlook is neutral this week. On the upside, above 1.2381 will indicate that pull back from 1.3015 has completed and should bring retest of this high. On the downside, below 1.1900 will indicate that fall from 1.3015 has resumed towards 1.1304 support. Read the rest of this entry »
EUR/USD Weekly Outlook
After edging lower to 1.2329 early last week, EUR/USD staged a strong rebound to as high as 1.3290. Even though EUR/USD weakens again towards the end of last week, it still ended the week higher. There is no doubt that a short term bottom is in place at 1.2329. With EUR/USD just missed 38.2% retracement of 1.4867 to 1.2329 at 1.3299, it’s believed that fall from 1.4687 has completed too and EUR/USD is developing into choppy sideway consolidation in the larger down trend from 1.6038.
Note that the path and length of the current consolidation could be quite unpredictable. Nevertheless, firstly, intraday upside momentum should start to diminish again in 1.3258/3768 resistance zone even in case of another rise. Secondly, as long as 1.2329 low holds, such consolidation could extend further. A break out on either side is needed to confirm that the consolidation has completed.
In the bigger picture, as discussed before, the strength of the fall from 1.6038 reinforces the case that whole decline from 1.6038 is developing into a five wave impulsive fall. The completed decline from 1.4867 to 1.2329 might represent the third wave decline in the five wave sequence. Consolidation from 1.2329 might represent the fourth wave consolidation. Hence, another decline is still expected before making a medium term bottom. Below 1.2329 will target next long term fibonacci level of 50% retracement of 0.8223 to 1.6038 at 1.2131 or even further to 1.1639 key medium term support. On the upside, sustained break of 1.3768 cluster resistance (38.2% retracement of 1.6038 to 1.2329 at 1.3746) is needed to invalidate this view and indicate that whole decline from 1.6038 has made a medium term bottom. Read the rest of this entry »
