USD/CAD Mid-Day Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2056; (P) 1.2212; (R1) 1.2321

USD/CAD continues to stay in established range of 1.1985 and 1.2389 as triangle consolidation continues. Though, short term outlook remains unchanged. Further rally is still in favor. Also, fall from 1.3005 should have completed at 1.1818. Break of 1.2514 resistance will confirm this case and bring retest of 1.3005/15 resistance zone. On the downside, though, below 1.1985 will indicate that fall from 1.3005 is probably resuming towards 1.1464 support instead.

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USD/CAD Mid-Day Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2104; (P) 1.2165; (R1) 1.2260

USD/CAD’s rise today suggests that sideway trading from 1.2389 might be completed. Intraday bias is now on the upside as long as 1.2065 minor support holds and further rise should be seen towards 1.2514 resistance. As discussed before, fall from 1.3005 might have completed at 1.1818 already. Break of 1.2514 resistance will confirm this case and bring retest of 1.3005/15 resistance zone. On the downside, though, below 1.2065 will indicate that fall from 1.3005 is probably resuming 1.1464 support instead. Read the rest of this entry »

USD/JPY Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 90.75; (P) 91.81; (R1) 92.47

USD/JPY falls sharply to as low as 88.54 today and the strong break of 90.92 low confirms that decline from 110.66 has resumed. At this point, short term outlook will remain bearish as long as 91.15 resistance holds. The current decline is expected to extend further to next target of 100% projection of 124.13 to 95.77 from 110.66 at 82.3. On the upside, while some recovery might be seen, break of 93.90 resistance is needed to indicate that a bottom is in place. Otherwise, short term risks remain on the downside. Read the rest of this entry »

Daily Report: Euro Leads Rebound against Dollar, SNB to Cut Again

Dollar’s decline continues today even though the $14b automaker rescue bill is passed in House and is set to vote in Senate on Thursday. One important thing to note is that dollar’s fall is lead by strengthen in European majors, in particular the Euro which is topping this week’s top movers chart. Swissy follows Euro’s strength despite expectation of another 50bps cut by SNB later today. Sterling is catching up in early US session as EUR/GBP retreats mildly. However, strength in Australian dollar and Canadian dollar is not apparent so far as both are still kept below this week’s high against the greenback. Yen crosses remains pretty steady so far except the apparent strength in EUR/JPY. Read the rest of this entry »

Weekly Review and Outlook: Obama Mixed Up Short Term Market Outlook
It looked as if dollar and yen staged a board based victory last week on risk aversion when S&P 500 dived to 11 year low while DOW took out 7884 support and tumbled to 7450. Crude oil tumbled to below $50 psychological level, sending the Canadian dollar sharply lower too. However, late rebound in stocks on news that NY Fed Chief Geithner is picked by President-elect Obama to be next Treasury mixed up the short term picture again. With the exception of USD/CHF, the greenback is still kept in range against most major currencies. Dollar is still struggle to break away from prior high of 87.87 despite edging higher to 88.46. Yen crosses are still bounded in range too.

The news of Geithner seemed to be well received by the markets and it lifted some hope that Obama is assembling a group of very strong and qualified people to lead US out of the worse financial crisis since the Great Depression. Also, on Saturday, Obama outlined his place to create 2.5m jobs in the coming years, including rebuilding roads and bridges, modernizing schools, developing alternative energy sources. The news will likely provide further boost to the stock markets early this week which in turn trigger some more pull back in dollar yen.

Technically speaking, though, there is no change in the medium term up trend of dollar and yen. Even if both currencies weaken in the near term, that should be treated as part of a medium term scale consolidation only which should the be followed by another round of buying.
By ActionForex

Mid-Day Report: Dollar Weakens as Consolidation Continues, FOMC Minutes Next
Dollar is sharply lower against European majors in early US session as consolidation continues. Technically speaking, as discussed in our technical outlook reports, more upside is still expected in EUR/USD and GBP/USD. Meanwhile, USD/CHF retreats sharply after edging higher to 1.2082 earlier today. Dollar index’s dip below 4 hours 55 EMA argues that some more pull back should be seen before resuming recent rally. Elsewhere, Crude oil, rides on dollar’s retreat and rebounds strongly from intraday low of 53.66 to above 55.6. Focus will now turn to FOMC minutes for inspirations on further volatility. Though, ,markets are pricing in 90% chance of another 50bps cut from Fed on Dec 16 and the minutes will likely have little impact to this view based on current economic and inflation outlook. Read the rest of this entry »

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2106; (P) 1.2246; (R1) 1.2511

USD/CAD’s rise from 1.1464 extends further to as high as 1.2418 before turning sideway. At this point, intraday bias remains on the upside as long as 1.2150 minor support holds. As discussed before, correction from 1.3015 has completed at 1.3015 has completed, ahead of 50% retracement of 0.9823 to 1.3015 at 1.1419. Further rise is expected to retest this 1.3015 high. On the downside, below 1.2150 will turn intraday outlook neutral first. Though, another rally is still in favor as long as pull back is contained above 1.1658 support.

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Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1733; (P) 1.1862; (R1) 1.2069

USD/CAD’s rise lost steam ahead of 1.2022 resistance and retreats mildly. Intraday outlook remains neutral for the moment. As discussed before, break of 1.2022 resistance will indicate rise from 1.1464 has resumed. More importantly, this will reaffirm the case that correction from 1.3015 has completed with three waves down to 1.1464, slightly above 50% retracement of 0.9823 to 1.3015 at 1.1419. In such case, strong rally should be seen to retest 1.3015 high. On the downside, though, below 1.1464 will indicate that fall from 1.3015 has resumed. Read the rest of this entry »

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1693; (P) 1.1905; (R1) 1.2017

USD/CAD’s correction from 1.3015 resumes by taking out 1.1900 low and reaches as low as 1.1630 in early US session. At this point, intraday bias remains on the downside a long as 1.1892 minor resistance holds. Further decline is still expected. Nevertheless, downside of this correction is expected to be contained by 1.1260/1419 support zone (50% retracement of 0.9823 to 1.3015 at 1.1419 and 100% projection of 1.3015 to 1.1900 from 1.2375 at 1.1260 as well as 1.1304 support) and bring up trend resumption. On the upside, above 1.1892 will turn intraday outlook neutral first. Further break of 1.2375 will indicate that fall from 1.3015 has completed and will then bring retest of this high. Read the rest of this entry »

USD/CHF Weekly Outlook

USD/CHF pulled back sharply to as low as 1.1208 last week but rebounded equally strongly to as high as 1.1709 to close the week just mildly lower. The correction from 1.1746 should have completed and initial bias will be on the upside this week as long as 1.1471 minor support holds. Retest of 1.1746 high should be seen. Break will confirm that medium term up trend has resumed for next target of 1.1878 cluster resistance. On the downside, below 1.1471 will turn intraday outlook neutral again.

In the bigger picture, while a short term top is in place, there is no confirmation of a medium term reversal yet as long as the mentioned rising trend line support (1.0010, 1.0693, now at 1.1090) holds. Medium term rise from 0.9634 is still expected to extend further to 1.1878 (61.8% retracement of 1.3283 to 0.9634 at 1.1889) after completing the current correction. However, sustained break of the trend line support will argue that the medium term rise might have finished and will turn focus back to 1.0693 support. Read the rest of this entry »