Daily Pivots: (S1) 86.46; (P) 87.84; (R1) 88.59

USD/JPY’s recovery from 87.13 breaches 89.24 minor resistance briefly, suggesting that an intraday low in in place. Intraday outlook is turned neutral for the moment and some recovery could be seen. Nevertheless, upside is expected to be limited below 91.57 resistance and bring fall resumption. Below 87.13 will target 100% projection of 124.13 to 95.77 from 110.66 at 82.30. Read the rest of this entry »

Daily Pivots: (S1) 92.30; (P) 93.94; (R1) 94.82

USD/JPY recovers mildly after hitting 92.64 earlier today. Though, at this point, intraday bias remains on the downside as long as 94.25 minor resistance holds. Decline from 100.54 could extend further to retest 90.92 low. On the upside, above 94.25 will turn intraday outlook neutral first. Also, note that the lack of impulsive structure of the fall from 100.54 so far is still arguing that it might be part of the consolidation that started at 90.92. Above 95.74 will indicate that fall from 100.54 has possibly completed. The corrective structure in turn suggests that rebound from 90.92 is still in progress and stronger rally should be seen to 100.54 or above before completion. Read the rest of this entry »

Not change in Gold’s outlook as consolidation continues between 717.1 and 778.3. The development so far argues that it’s in form of a triangle pattern which could be completing. As discussed before, below 717.10 will indicate that such consolidation from 684.6 has completed. In such case, retest of 684.60 low should be seen first and then 100% projection of 1033.9 to 739.8 from 936.3 at 642.2. On the upside, while another rise cannot be ruled out for the moment, we’d still expect upside to be limited below 824.5 resistance and bring down trend resumption. Read the rest of this entry »

Daily Pivots: (S1) 95.19; (P) 96.17; (R1) 96.68

USD/JPY’s break of the intraday trend line support with 4 hours MACD dragged down signal line argues that fall from 100.54 might be resuming. Intraday bias is now mildly on the downside and near term focus is turned to 94.47 minor support. Break will confirm this scenario and bring deeper fall to retest 90.92 low first. On the other hand, above 97.13 minor resistance will revive the case that rebound from 90.92 is still in progress for 100.54 or above before completion.

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USD/JPY spiraled lower to 93.55 last week but downside momentum was rather unconvincing. So far, the structure of the fall from 100.54 to 93.55 is still looking corrective, arguing that rebound from 90.92 is not over. Anyway, with 4 hours MACD crossed above signal line, initial outlook is neutral this week. Break of 98.18 will favor the case that rise 90.92 is still in progress and another rally could be seen to 100.54 or above before completion. On the downside, though, below 93.55 will indicate that fall from 100.54 is still in progress and will continue to target 90.92 low. Read the rest of this entry »

Daily Pivots: (S1) 95.19; (P) 96.17; (R1) 96.68

USD/JPY’s break of the intraday trend line support with 4 hours MACD dragged down signal line argues that fall from 100.54 might be resuming. Intraday bias is now mildly on the downside and near term focus is turned to 94.47 minor support. Break will confirm this scenario and bring deeper fall to retest 90.92 low first. On the other hand, above 97.13 minor resistance will revive the case that rebound from 90.92 is still in progress for 100.54 or above before completion.

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Oil reached our first target of 53.69 (100% projection of 147.27 to 90.51 from 110.45) and continued to trade lower Wednesday. Although oversold condition and loss of momentum might lead to a brief rebound, bearish outlook in short and medium has not changed.
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Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1983; (P) 1.2014; (R1) 1.2062

USD/CHF’s rally is still in progress and climbs further to 1.2061 today so far. Intraday bias remains on the upside as long as 1.1965minor support holds. Current rise from 1.1208 is still expected to extend to next target of 100% projection of 1.0693 to 1.1746 from 1.1208 at 1.2261. On the downside, below 1.1965 will indicate that an intraday top is in place and bring retreat to 4 hours 55 EMA (now at 1.1875). Also, considering bearish divergence condition in 4 hours MACD, this will be an early alert that a short term top is formed and focus will then turn to 1.1549 support.

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Gold continues to stay in established range without any direction. Consolidation from 684.60 is still in progress and is probably in form of a contracting triangle. Having said that, further upside cannot be ruled out as long as 698.2 minor support holds but we’d still expect such consolidation to be limited below 824.5 support turned resistance and bring down trend resumption. On the downside, below 698.2 will be an early alert that such consolidation has completed. It will flip intraday bias back to the downside for retesting 684.6 low first. Break will confirm recent down trend has resumed.

In the bigger picture, correction from 1033.9 is still in force and should be targeting next key support zone of 100% projection of 1033.9 to 739.8 from 936.3 at 642.2 and 61.8% retracement of 371.3 to 1033.9 at 624.41. On the upside, while some rebound might be seen, break of 936.3 is needed to confirm that fall from 1033.9 has completed. Otherwise, medium term outlook will remain bearish.

Comex Gold Continuous Contract 4 Hours Chart

Comex Gold Continuous Contract Daily Chart

BY OilNGold

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1861; (P) 1.1926; (R1) 1.2013

USD/CHF edges higher to 1.2006 today and continues to press last week’s high of 1.2000. At this point, intraday bias remains on the upside as long as 1.1825 minor support holds and further rise is still expected to next target of 100% projection of 1.0693 to 1.1746 from 1.1208 at 1.2261. On the downside,below 1.1825 will flip intraday bias to the downside and argue that a short term top is possibly in place with bearish divergence condition in 4 hours MACD.

In the bigger picture, medium term rise from 0.9634 is still in progress and has taken out 1.1878 (61.8% retracement of 1.3283 to 0.9634 at 1.1889). Sustained trading above there will encourage further medium term rally to test 1.3283 high. On the downside, break of 1.1208 support is needed to indicate that such medium term rally has completed. Otherwise, medium term outlook will remain bullish even in case of deep pull back.