USD/CAD Mid-Day Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2056; (P) 1.2212; (R1) 1.2321

USD/CAD continues to stay in established range of 1.1985 and 1.2389 as triangle consolidation continues. Though, short term outlook remains unchanged. Further rally is still in favor. Also, fall from 1.3005 should have completed at 1.1818. Break of 1.2514 resistance will confirm this case and bring retest of 1.3005/15 resistance zone. On the downside, though, below 1.1985 will indicate that fall from 1.3005 is probably resuming towards 1.1464 support instead.

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Mid-Day Report: Euro Weakens, Dollar and Sterling Rebounds to Close the Year

First of all, wish our readers happy and prosperous 2009!

Just after we mentioned the possibility of reversal in Euro yesterday, selling of the common currency intensifies in thin holiday trading on New Year’s Eve. Most importantly, EUR/GBP dropped over 300 pts to to as low as 0.9473 in early US session. Bearish divergence condition in 4 hours MACD and RSI argues that a short term top is formed at 0.9799 and more weakness will likely be seen, probably to retest 0.9 psychological level. EUR/USD is back below 1.39 and is set to test key near term cluster support at 1.3629. EUR/CAD will probably test double top neckline support at 1.6750 too. Note that Euro’s rally in Dec is partly fueled by speculations that ECB will pause rate cut in early Jan but markets are getting doubtful on such expectations as outlook of the Eurozone economy is getting worse. Some more profit taking on Euro longs could be seen leading to to ECB meeting on Jan 15. Read the rest of this entry »

USD/CAD Mid-Day Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2104; (P) 1.2165; (R1) 1.2260

USD/CAD’s rise today suggests that sideway trading from 1.2389 might be completed. Intraday bias is now on the upside as long as 1.2065 minor support holds and further rise should be seen towards 1.2514 resistance. As discussed before, fall from 1.3005 might have completed at 1.1818 already. Break of 1.2514 resistance will confirm this case and bring retest of 1.3005/15 resistance zone. On the downside, though, below 1.2065 will indicate that fall from 1.3005 is probably resuming 1.1464 support instead. Read the rest of this entry »

Mid-Day Report: Swiss Franc Dominance Continues, Sterling and Dollar Hit Hard
By ActionForex

Swiss Franc continues to rise across the board on safe haven flow triggered by concern on escalating tension in the Middle East. Meanwhile, Sterling remains the weakest one, even worst than the greenback, on view that BoE will soon follow Fed to enter Zero Interest Rate Policy and quantitative easing. GBP/CHF leads the top mover chart and dives to as low as 1.5229 while EUR/GBP continues to make new record high at 0.9793 and is heading to parity. Dollar also remains weak as pressured by strength in Euro, Swissy as well as commodities. However, note that while Aussie is lifted by rise in gold prices, Canadian dollar remains in tight range despite rebound in crude oil. Read the rest of this entry »

Daily Forex Report: BoJ Cuts 20bps, Has Euro Topped?
By ActionForex

The forex markets are rather steady today so far as little response is paid to BoJ’s rate cut. the Bank of Japan cut the overnight lending rate from 0.3% to 0.1% on 7-1 vote and announced plan to buy corporate debts to help corporate raise funds during deepening recession. Tado Noda was the sole member to dissent. Basic loan rate was also lowered by 20bps to 0.3% by unanimous vote. Yen remains mixed after the decision. Note that firstly, more upside cannot be ruled out in EUR/JPY and CHF/JPY as supported by the theme of intervention. Secondly, USD/JPY’s recovery is not convincing yet as the downtrend is still intact. Thirdly, GBP/JPY, AUD/JPY and CAD/JPY are staying in range despite all the volatility elsewhere. There is not broad based direction in the Japanese currency for the moment. Read the rest of this entry »

Daily Forex Report: Swiss Franc to Take Over Euro’s Leading Strength?

By ActionForex

Dollar index extended the sharp decline to as low as 78.22 before recovering mildly. The broad based weakness in the greenback is still overwhelming in the markets but after all as the greenback is now sitting in side an important support zone of 75.89 to 80.38, some support should be seen in near term as the greenback approaches 61.8% retracement of 71.31 to 88.46 at 77.86. It’s unclear on whether dollar’s up trend has totally finished but some noticeable rebound should be seen on oversold condition in near term. The critical factor to determine dollar’s outlook will indeed be on whether another fall will be seen after the anticipated rebound to make the whole fall from 88.46 a five wave impulsive sequence, or will such fall complete in three wave corrective manner. This should be decided in the next few weeks and will set the tone for 2009. Read the rest of this entry »

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3274; (P) 1.3345; (R1) 1.3438

EUR/USD’s rise continues in early US session and reaches as high as 1.3585 so far, taking out mentioned 100% projection of 1.2329 to 1.3290 from 1.2549 at 1.3510. At this point, intraday bias remains on the upside as long as 1.3430 minor support holds. Focus now turns to 1.3768 cluster resistance. On the downside, below 1.3430 minor support will turn intraday outlook neutral first. But another rise is still in favor as long as 1.3250 support holds. Read the rest of this entry »

EurUsd Market broke on the upside the November triangle consolidation pattern. It’s been trading as high as 1.3406 yesterday erasing the last 6-week trading range 1.2330 – 1.3298. This may open the way to 1.3500 target equal to 1.3302-1.2334 spread. On the further upside, only a return over 1.4000 (former trendline support) and 1.5000 will confirm release of the 3-month pressure and may put key resistance 1.6000 into focus. Resistance holds 1.4002 former trendline support. Initial resistance holds 1.3406 yesterday high. On the downside, renewed weakness below 1.2430 21st November low may open the way down to trendline support 1.2208. Next long-term support holds 1.1640 November 2005 low. Further support holds 1.0739 September 2003 low. Former resistance 1.3298 holds now initial support.
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USD/JPY Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 90.75; (P) 91.81; (R1) 92.47

USD/JPY falls sharply to as low as 88.54 today and the strong break of 90.92 low confirms that decline from 110.66 has resumed. At this point, short term outlook will remain bearish as long as 91.15 resistance holds. The current decline is expected to extend further to next target of 100% projection of 124.13 to 95.77 from 110.66 at 82.3. On the upside, while some recovery might be seen, break of 93.90 resistance is needed to indicate that a bottom is in place. Otherwise, short term risks remain on the downside. Read the rest of this entry »

Gold’s rise from 741.2 extends further to as high as 835.3 before retreating mildly. Though, intraday bias remains on the upside as long as 798.1 minor support holds. Focus remains on 61.8% retracement of 936.3 to 681 at 838.8. Decisive break will will indicate that correction from 1033.9 might have bottomed out at 681 and stronger rise could be seen targeting 936.3 resistance first. However, bounce off from this fibo resistance will affirm original short term bearish case and indicate that fall from 936.3 is still in progress. Below 798.1 will turn intraday outlook neutral first. Further break of 741.2 support will indicate that corrective rise from 681 has completed and bring retest of this low first. Read the rest of this entry »