Daily Pivots: (S1) 95.19; (P) 96.17; (R1) 96.68
USD/JPY’s break of the intraday trend line support with 4 hours MACD dragged down signal line argues that fall from 100.54 might be resuming. Intraday bias is now mildly on the downside and near term focus is turned to 94.47 minor support. Break will confirm this scenario and bring deeper fall to retest 90.92 low first. On the other hand, above 97.13 minor resistance will revive the case that rebound from 90.92 is still in progress for 100.54 or above before completion.
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Daily Pivots: (S1) 95.19; (P) 96.17; (R1) 96.68
USD/JPY’s break of the intraday trend line support with 4 hours MACD dragged down signal line argues that fall from 100.54 might be resuming. Intraday bias is now mildly on the downside and near term focus is turned to 94.47 minor support. Break will confirm this scenario and bring deeper fall to retest 90.92 low first. On the other hand, above 97.13 minor resistance will revive the case that rebound from 90.92 is still in progress for 100.54 or above before completion.
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EUR/JPY rebounded strongly after edging lower to 113.63 last week and reached as high as 131.02. Subsequent retreat indicates that an intraday top is in place and turned outlook neutral. Near term focus is now on 121.38 minor support. As long as this minor support holds, the rebound from 113.63 may still extend further. However, below 121.38 will indicate that rebound from 113.63 has completed and will bring retest of this low.
In the bigger picture, the biggest question now is whether the fall from 169.96 has completed a five wave sequence already. The failure to break through the near term trend line provided no hints. But in any case, 113.63 is at least a short term bottom and some more consolidations should be seen as long as 113.63 low holds. Breaking of 132.18 will indicate that the five wave sequence has likely completed and a medium term bottom is in place at 113.63. In such case, medium term consolidation should be seen between 113.63 and 141.73 cluster resistance (50% retracement of 169.96 to 113.63 at 141.79) and will take a longer time to complete.
In other words, it’s just a matter of the time and range such consolidation will take. After all, upside is still expected to be limited below 141.73 cluster resistance. Whole down trend from 169.96 is still expected to resume. And break of 113.63 low is needed to confirm that such down trend has resumed. Read the rest of this entry »
Daily Pivots: (S1) 117.57; (P) 121.09; (R1) 127.8
EUR/JPY’s rebound from 113.63 extended further to as high as 127.29, touching mentioned 4 hours 55 EMA. At this point, intraday bias remains on the upside as long as 118.13 minor support holds and further rebound could not be ruled out. Though, upside is still expected to be limited below 132.18 resistance and bring down trend resumption again. On the downside, below 118.13 will flip intraday bias back to the downside for retesting 113.63 low. Break will indicate recent fall has resumed for 200% projection of 169.96 to 147.03 from 156.84 at 110.98 next.
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Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0637; (P) 1.0692; (R1) 1.0725
USD/CAD reverses after reaching 1.0776, inch below mentioned 1.0791/98 and fall sharply in early US session. Break of 1.0612 indicates that an intraday top is in place. Outlook is turned neutral for the moment with risk on the downside for further retreat. Near term focus now turns to cluster support at 1.0410 (38.2% retracement of 0.9823 to 1.0776 at 1.0412). As long as this support holds, recent rally should still be in force and further rise is still in favor after completing consolidation. However, considering that 1.0791/98 is almost met, break of 1.0410 will indicate that whole rally from 0.9823 has completed with five waves up to 1.0776 with bearish divergence condition in 4 hours MACD and RSI.
In the bigger picture, medium term rise from 0.9056 is still in progress towards mentioned cluster resistance at 1.0791/98 (61.8% retracement of 1.1874 to 0.9056 at 1.0798, 61.8% projection of 0.9056 to 1.0378 from 0.9974 at 1.0791) first. Sustained break of 1.0791/98 will argue that rise from 0.9056 is probably more than just a correction in the long term down trend and will set the stage to test key long term resistance at 1.1874. However, break of 0.9974 support will indicate that whole medium term rise from 0.9056 has already finished. The three wave structure will indicate that it’s just a correction in the long term down trend and much deeper decline could then be seen to retest 0.9056 low.
