Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3274; (P) 1.3345; (R1) 1.3438

EUR/USD’s rise continues in early US session and reaches as high as 1.3585 so far, taking out mentioned 100% projection of 1.2329 to 1.3290 from 1.2549 at 1.3510. At this point, intraday bias remains on the upside as long as 1.3430 minor support holds. Focus now turns to 1.3768 cluster resistance. On the downside, below 1.3430 minor support will turn intraday outlook neutral first. But another rise is still in favor as long as 1.3250 support holds. Read the rest of this entry »

Daily Pivots: (S1) 95.19; (P) 96.17; (R1) 96.68

USD/JPY’s break of the intraday trend line support with 4 hours MACD dragged down signal line argues that fall from 100.54 might be resuming. Intraday bias is now mildly on the downside and near term focus is turned to 94.47 minor support. Break will confirm this scenario and bring deeper fall to retest 90.92 low first. On the other hand, above 97.13 minor resistance will revive the case that rebound from 90.92 is still in progress for 100.54 or above before completion.

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Daily Pivots: (S1) 95.19; (P) 96.17; (R1) 96.68

USD/JPY’s break of the intraday trend line support with 4 hours MACD dragged down signal line argues that fall from 100.54 might be resuming. Intraday bias is now mildly on the downside and near term focus is turned to 94.47 minor support. Break will confirm this scenario and bring deeper fall to retest 90.92 low first. On the other hand, above 97.13 minor resistance will revive the case that rebound from 90.92 is still in progress for 100.54 or above before completion.

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GBP/USD’s down trend resumed last week and dived to as low as 1.4557 before turning sideway. Initial bias remains on the downside this week as long as 1.5080 minor resistance holds and further fall is expected to 100% projection of 1.7630 to 1.5269 from 1.6671 at 1.4310. On the upside, above 1.5080 will turn intraday outlook neutral and bring recovery to 4 hours 55 EMA (now at 1.5428). But upside should be limited below 1.5600 support turned resistance and bring fall resumption.

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Crude oil’s down trend continues as expected and falls to as low as 57.70 so far. As discussed before, further decline is still expected as long as 65.56 minor resistance holds. Next target will be 100% projection of 147.27 to 90.51 from 110.45 at 53.69. On the upside, above 65.56 will turn intraday outlook neutral first. Further break of 71.77 will indicate that a short term bottom is formed and bring strong rally towards falling trend line resistance at 83.47.
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USD/CHF Mid-Day Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1709; (P) 1.1753; (R1) 1.1827

USD/CHF continues to stay in tight range below 1.1800 today without making any progress. While some more sideway trading might still be seen, further rally is still expected as long as 1.1546 support holds. Next target is 1.1878 cluster resistance. On the downside, however, below 1.1546 will indicate that a short term top is in place and put focus back to trend line support at 1.1173. Read the rest of this entry »

Nymex Crude Oil (CL)

Crude oil’s rebound from 61.3 resumes and breaches 70.6 briefly before retreating. The development is consistent with the view that a short term bottom is in place at 61.3 with bullish convergence conditions in 4 hours MACD and RSI. Intraday bias will now be on the upside and further rise should be seen towards trend line resistance at 87. On the downside, below 62.25 is needed to indicate rise from 61.3 has completed. Otherwise, short term outlook will remain bullish. Read the rest of this entry »

Daily Pivots: (S1) 154.61; (P) 158.15; (R1) 162.61

No change in GBP/JPY’s outlook as consolidation continues inside range of 153.35 and 165.02. While the corrective price actions from 165.02 suggests that further upside is likely, break of this high is still needed to confirm. In such case, the near term falling trend line will also be taken out and stronger rebound should then be seen towards 181.37 resistance. On the downside, note that break of 153.35 minor support will suggest that rise from 139.02 has completed and bring retest of this low. Read the rest of this entry »

Nymex Crude Oil (CL)

Crude oil continues to stay in tight range between 61.3 and 70.6 today. Intraday outlook remains neutral for the moment. Nevertheless, the three wave structure of the price actions from 70.6 argues that it’s corrective in nature. In otherwise, it supports the view that a short term bottom is in place at 61.3 and further rally is to be seen. Above 70.6 will confirm and bring rise to test trend line resistance at 87.43. On the downside, however, below 61.3 will indicate that recent down trend has resumed for 100% projection of 147.27 to 90.51 from 110.45 at 53.69.

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EUR/JPY rebounded strongly after edging lower to 113.63 last week and reached as high as 131.02. Subsequent retreat indicates that an intraday top is in place and turned outlook neutral. Near term focus is now on 121.38 minor support. As long as this minor support holds, the rebound from 113.63 may still extend further. However, below 121.38 will indicate that rebound from 113.63 has completed and will bring retest of this low.

In the bigger picture, the biggest question now is whether the fall from 169.96 has completed a five wave sequence already. The failure to break through the near term trend line provided no hints. But in any case, 113.63 is at least a short term bottom and some more consolidations should be seen as long as 113.63 low holds. Breaking of 132.18 will indicate that the five wave sequence has likely completed and a medium term bottom is in place at 113.63. In such case, medium term consolidation should be seen between 113.63 and 141.73 cluster resistance (50% retracement of 169.96 to 113.63 at 141.79) and will take a longer time to complete.

In other words, it’s just a matter of the time and range such consolidation will take. After all, upside is still expected to be limited below 141.73 cluster resistance. Whole down trend from 169.96 is still expected to resume. And break of 113.63 low is needed to confirm that such down trend has resumed. Read the rest of this entry »