USD/CAD Mid-Day Outlook
Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2056; (P) 1.2212; (R1) 1.2321
USD/CAD continues to stay in established range of 1.1985 and 1.2389 as triangle consolidation continues. Though, short term outlook remains unchanged. Further rally is still in favor. Also, fall from 1.3005 should have completed at 1.1818. Break of 1.2514 resistance will confirm this case and bring retest of 1.3005/15 resistance zone. On the downside, though, below 1.1985 will indicate that fall from 1.3005 is probably resuming towards 1.1464 support instead.
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Daily Pivots: (S1) 86.46; (P) 87.84; (R1) 88.59
USD/JPY’s recovery from 87.13 breaches 89.24 minor resistance briefly, suggesting that an intraday low in in place. Intraday outlook is turned neutral for the moment and some recovery could be seen. Nevertheless, upside is expected to be limited below 91.57 resistance and bring fall resumption. Below 87.13 will target 100% projection of 124.13 to 95.77 from 110.66 at 82.30. Read the rest of this entry »
EurUsd Market broke on the upside the November triangle consolidation pattern. It’s been trading as high as 1.3406 yesterday erasing the last 6-week trading range 1.2330 – 1.3298. This may open the way to 1.3500 target equal to 1.3302-1.2334 spread. On the further upside, only a return over 1.4000 (former trendline support) and 1.5000 will confirm release of the 3-month pressure and may put key resistance 1.6000 into focus. Resistance holds 1.4002 former trendline support. Initial resistance holds 1.3406 yesterday high. On the downside, renewed weakness below 1.2430 21st November low may open the way down to trendline support 1.2208. Next long-term support holds 1.1640 November 2005 low. Further support holds 1.0739 September 2003 low. Former resistance 1.3298 holds now initial support.
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USD/JPY Daily Outlook
Daily Pivots: (S1) 90.75; (P) 91.81; (R1) 92.47
USD/JPY falls sharply to as low as 88.54 today and the strong break of 90.92 low confirms that decline from 110.66 has resumed. At this point, short term outlook will remain bearish as long as 91.15 resistance holds. The current decline is expected to extend further to next target of 100% projection of 124.13 to 95.77 from 110.66 at 82.3. On the upside, while some recovery might be seen, break of 93.90 resistance is needed to indicate that a bottom is in place. Otherwise, short term risks remain on the downside. Read the rest of this entry »
Daily Pivots: (S1) 92.30; (P) 93.94; (R1) 94.82
USD/JPY recovers mildly after hitting 92.64 earlier today. Though, at this point, intraday bias remains on the downside as long as 94.25 minor resistance holds. Decline from 100.54 could extend further to retest 90.92 low. On the upside, above 94.25 will turn intraday outlook neutral first. Also, note that the lack of impulsive structure of the fall from 100.54 so far is still arguing that it might be part of the consolidation that started at 90.92. Above 95.74 will indicate that fall from 100.54 has possibly completed. The corrective structure in turn suggests that rebound from 90.92 is still in progress and stronger rally should be seen to 100.54 or above before completion. Read the rest of this entry »
Daily Pivots: (S1) 95.19; (P) 96.17; (R1) 96.68
USD/JPY’s break of the intraday trend line support with 4 hours MACD dragged down signal line argues that fall from 100.54 might be resuming. Intraday bias is now mildly on the downside and near term focus is turned to 94.47 minor support. Break will confirm this scenario and bring deeper fall to retest 90.92 low first. On the other hand, above 97.13 minor resistance will revive the case that rebound from 90.92 is still in progress for 100.54 or above before completion.
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USD/JPY spiraled lower to 93.55 last week but downside momentum was rather unconvincing. So far, the structure of the fall from 100.54 to 93.55 is still looking corrective, arguing that rebound from 90.92 is not over. Anyway, with 4 hours MACD crossed above signal line, initial outlook is neutral this week. Break of 98.18 will favor the case that rise 90.92 is still in progress and another rally could be seen to 100.54 or above before completion. On the downside, though, below 93.55 will indicate that fall from 100.54 is still in progress and will continue to target 90.92 low. Read the rest of this entry »
Daily Pivots: (S1) 95.19; (P) 96.17; (R1) 96.68
USD/JPY’s break of the intraday trend line support with 4 hours MACD dragged down signal line argues that fall from 100.54 might be resuming. Intraday bias is now mildly on the downside and near term focus is turned to 94.47 minor support. Break will confirm this scenario and bring deeper fall to retest 90.92 low first. On the other hand, above 97.13 minor resistance will revive the case that rebound from 90.92 is still in progress for 100.54 or above before completion.
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Gold continues to stay in established range without any direction. Consolidation from 684.60 is still in progress and is probably in form of a contracting triangle. Having said that, further upside cannot be ruled out as long as 698.2 minor support holds but we’d still expect such consolidation to be limited below 824.5 support turned resistance and bring down trend resumption. On the downside, below 698.2 will be an early alert that such consolidation has completed. It will flip intraday bias back to the downside for retesting 684.6 low first. Break will confirm recent down trend has resumed.
In the bigger picture, correction from 1033.9 is still in force and should be targeting next key support zone of 100% projection of 1033.9 to 739.8 from 936.3 at 642.2 and 61.8% retracement of 371.3 to 1033.9 at 624.41. On the upside, while some rebound might be seen, break of 936.3 is needed to confirm that fall from 1033.9 has completed. Otherwise, medium term outlook will remain bearish.
Comex Gold Continuous Contract 4 Hours Chart
Comex Gold Continuous Contract Daily Chart
BY OilNGold
Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2488; (P) 1.2672; (R1) 1.2955
EUR/USD’s strong rebound from 1.2389 indicates that an intraday low is in place and more importantly, it invalidated the triangle breakout scenario and suggests that consolidation from 1.2329 is still in progress. Intraday bias is flipped back to the upside and further rebound could be seen towards 1.3290 high. Though, there is no change in the broader view that price actions from 1.2329 is merely consolidation in the larger down trend. Upside of the current rise from 1.2389 is still expected to be limited below 1.3768 cluster resistance and bring down trend resumption. On the downside, below 1.2591 will turn intraday outlook neutral again. Further break of 1.2389 will be an important indication that recent down trend has resumed for next target of 50% retracement of 0.8223 to 1.6038 at 1.2131
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