Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2555; (P) 1.2628; (R1) 1.2689

EUR/USD’s strong rally in early US session suggests that rebound from 1.2389 is resuming. At this point, intraday bias is mildly on the upside as long as 1.2585 minor support holds. Further rise is in favor to 1.3290 high and 100% projection of 1.2329 to 1.3290 from 1.2389 at 1.3350 to complete the consolidation from 1.2329. Nevertheless, upside is expected be limited below 1.3768 cluster resistance and bring down trend resumption. On the downside, below 1.2585 will flip intraday bias back to the downside and break of 1.2389 will be an important indication that consolidation from 1.2329 has completed and recent down trend has resumed for next target of 50% retracement of 0.8223 to 1.6038 at 1.2131

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Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.4609; (P) 1.4781; (R1) 1.4907

GBP/USD’s recovery from 1.4557 extends further today and with 4 hours MACD staying well above signal line, an intraday low should be in place. Some more consolidation is in favor. Above 1.4557 will encourage stronger recovery towards 4 hours 55 EMA (now at 1.5327). But upside should be limited below 1.5600 support turned resistance and bring fall resumption. On the downside, below 1.4557 will target mentioned 100% projection of 1.7630 to 1.5269 from 1.6671 at 1.4310.

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GBP/USD’s down trend resumed last week and dived to as low as 1.4557 before turning sideway. Initial bias remains on the downside this week as long as 1.5080 minor resistance holds and further fall is expected to 100% projection of 1.7630 to 1.5269 from 1.6671 at 1.4310. On the upside, above 1.5080 will turn intraday outlook neutral and bring recovery to 4 hours 55 EMA (now at 1.5428). But upside should be limited below 1.5600 support turned resistance and bring fall resumption.

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Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2488; (P) 1.2672; (R1) 1.2955

EUR/USD’s strong rebound from 1.2389 indicates that an intraday low is in place and more importantly, it invalidated the triangle breakout scenario and suggests that consolidation from 1.2329 is still in progress. Intraday bias is flipped back to the upside and further rebound could be seen towards 1.3290 high. Though, there is no change in the broader view that price actions from 1.2329 is merely consolidation in the larger down trend. Upside of the current rise from 1.2389 is still expected to be limited below 1.3768 cluster resistance and bring down trend resumption. On the downside, below 1.2591 will turn intraday outlook neutral again. Further break of 1.2389 will be an important indication that recent down trend has resumed for next target of 50% retracement of 0.8223 to 1.6038 at 1.2131

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GBP/JPY’s fall from 165.02 continues today and reaches as low as 147.63 so far. At this point, intraday bias remains on the downside as long as 154.23 minor resistance holds. Further decline is expected to retest 139.02 low first. Break will confirm that recent down trend has resumed. On the upside, above 154.23 will turn intraday outlook neutral. Further break of 157.63 will indicate that consolidation from 139.02 is still in progress and could retest 165.97 resistance before completion. Read the rest of this entry »

AUD/USD Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.6589; (P) 0.6688; (R1) 0.6834

AUD/USD gaps higher today but after all it’s still staying in range of 0.6543 and 0.7014. With 0.6543 support intact, there is no confirmation of completion of rebound from 0.6008 yet. Further rally cannot be ruled out and break of 0.7014 will target 38.2% retracement of 0.9849 to 0.6008 at 0.7475. On the downside, though, break of 0.6543 will confirm that rebound 0.6008 has completed and will bring retest of this low. Read the rest of this entry »

EUR/USD continued to engage in choppy sideway consolidation between 1.2329 and 1.3290 last week. As discussed before, with EUR/USD just missed 38.2% retracement of 1.4867 to 1.2329 at 1.3299, it’s believed that fall from 1.4867 has completed. Consolidation from 1.2329 is still in progress and is probably developing into triangle pattern. Nevertheless, in any case, firstly, as long as 1.2329 low holds, such consolidation could extend further. Secondly, in case of another rise, upside should be limited below 1.3768 cluster resistance. And more importantly, the path of the consolidation will remain unpredictable. Read the rest of this entry »

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.6559; (P) 0.6730; (R1) 0.6824

As discussed before, AUD/USD’s rebound from 0.6008 could have already completed at 0.7014 already. 4 hours MACD’s turn negative adds some more credence to this case too. Break of 0.6549 minor support will confirm and bring retest of 0.6008 low. On the upside, though, above 0.7014 will indicate that rise from 0.6008 is still in progress for 38.2% retracement of 0.9849 to 0.6008 at 0.7475.

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Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2655; (P) 1.2851; (R1) 1.3177

EUR/USD’s rise from 1.2525 extends further to 1.3114 after mild retreat today. At this point, intraday bias remains on the upside as long as 1.2797 minor support holds. As discussed before, the corrective structure of the fall from 1.3290 to 1.2525 suggests that rebound from 1.2329 is resuming and further upside is in favor to retest 1.3290 high first. On the downside, though, below 1.2525 will flip intraday bias back to the downside for retesting 1.2329 low.

As discussed before, there is no doubt that a short term bottom is in place at 1.2329. With EUR/USD just missed 38.2% retracement of 1.4867 to 1.2329 at 1.3299, it’s believed that fall from 1.4867 has completed too and EUR/USD is developing into choppy sideway consolidation in the larger down trend from 1.6038. Note that the path and length of the current consolidation could be quite unpredictable. Nevertheless, firstly, intraday upside momentum should start to diminish again in 1.3258/3768 resistance zone even in case of another rise. Secondly, as long as 1.2329 low holds, such consolidation could extend further. A break out on either side is needed to confirm that the consolidation has completed.

In the bigger picture, as discussed before, the strength of the fall from 1.6038 reinforces the case that whole decline from 1.6038 is developing into a five wave impulsive fall. The completed decline from 1.4867 to 1.2329 might represent the third wave decline in the five wave sequence. Consolidation from 1.2329 might represent the fourth wave consolidation. Hence, another decline is still expected before making a medium term bottom. Below 1.2329 will target next long term fibonacci level of 50% retracement of 0.8223 to 1.6038 at 1.2131 or even further to 1.1639 key medium term support. On the upside, sustained break of 1.3768 cluster resistance (38.2% retracement of 1.6038 to 1.2329 at 1.3746) is needed to invalidate this view and indicate that whole decline from 1.6038 has made a medium term bottom.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 154.61; (P) 158.15; (R1) 162.61

No change in GBP/JPY’s outlook as consolidation continues inside range of 153.35 and 165.02. While the corrective price actions from 165.02 suggests that further upside is likely, break of this high is still needed to confirm. In such case, the near term falling trend line will also be taken out and stronger rebound should then be seen towards 181.37 resistance. On the downside, note that break of 153.35 minor support will suggest that rise from 139.02 has completed and bring retest of this low. Read the rest of this entry »